Changing weather patterns helped produce a mixed cash market Monday, but gains that ranged up to about a quarter handily outweighed the flat to mildly lower points that were concentrated in the Midcontinent/Midwest.

As one source had predicted Friday, a strong screen that day would help generate a rally Monday. And the November gas futures contract tacked on a fresh increase of nearly 14 cents Monday after rallying from early weakness. Crude oil futures had to give back some earlier gains but still managed to pad their margin slightly over the $30/bbl level as traders saw bullish implications in rising Mideast violence over the weekend and a planned strike by Nigerian oilfield workers starting Thursday.

One source pointed to a large number of nuclear plant outages for planned maintenance or other reasons as further support for gas prices. NGI‘s web site page that tracks daily changes in plant status as reported by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (https://intelligencepress.com/subscribers/power/nrc/) noted as of Monday afternoon several units had taken large drops to zero output since Sunday.

Most of the dime-plus increases occurred at western points, which — not entirely coincidentally — had recorded the largest losses on the preceding Friday. The Southern California border led the West’s surge after a SoCalGas OFO failed to survive beyond Saturday (see Transportation Notes). In addition, a cold front is lowering thermometer levels from the Rockies into the Southwest.

But though some heating load was surfacing in parts of the Rockies, the front will remove some air conditioning demand in the Southwest. Phoenix, which was still seeing triple-digit highs last week and remained in the 90s Monday, is predicted to go no higher than the mid 80s Tuesday.

Back in the East, there were significant variations in weather (and price trends) depending on the region. Temperatures in the western Midwest and Midcontinent are mild enough that Northern Natural Gas was prompted to issue a System Underrun Limitation notice (see Transportation Notes). “It’s unseasonably warm in the market area,” said a Midcontinent trader. “The SUL means NNG wants you to take all scheduled deliveries or put the gas in storage if possible; in other words, quit overstuffing the pipe!”

Meanwhile, it’s downright cold in New England, said a utility buyer. Overnight lows sank into the 20s in a nearby town, she said, “and it hit freezing here and in the surrounding area. Our first frost of the season came a week earlier than predicted.” A warm-up is due in the Northeast around midweek, the buyer continued, and then it will get cold again next week. Citygates were dipping slightly in Monday’s later deals, she said.

The situation of Florida Gas Transmission was opposite to that of NNG. Keeping its shippers on their toes, FGT cautioned them Monday about the possibility of an Overage Alert Day notice (indicating low linepack) Tuesday about a week after warning that an Underage Alert Day (high linepack) might be declared (see Transportation Notes). There’s nothing unusual in Florida weather, said a utility buyer quoting citygates in the mid $4.60s. “It’s about what it should be at this time of year with daytime highs in the 80s.”

However, a marketer said the alert notice didn’t surprise him, noting that FGT had held a shipper meeting late last week. Many traders on the pipeline let their nominations roll over while at the meeting, he explained, but that practice was complicated by heavier than expected air conditioning load in Florida over the weekend.

And while sections of the U.S. get colder, a Calgary-based marketer said he was getting ready to go play golf Monday afternoon in 79-degree (Fahrenheit) weather. He noted that next Monday is Canada’s Thanksgiving Day, so Friday’s trading at all Canadian points will be for flow through Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center said early Monday it was issuing its last advisory on Tropical Storm Larry “unless regeneration occurs.” Larry was dissipating at the time over eastern Mexico about 65 miles south of the community of Coatzacoalcos, although it still posed a heavy threat of rain and flooding, NHC said.

Meanwhile, Kate still qualified as a hurricane but was weakening as it proceeded north-northeast into cold North Atlantic waters Monday. It was expected to pass by Newfoundland Tuesday before heading toward Iceland and eventual oblivion.

The rest of the Atlantic tropical scene was fairly quiet, but The Weather Channel said upper-level winds could favor development of a group of thunderstorms “associated with a tropical wave about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.” The wave was moving toward the west-northwest, TWC said.

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