Prices fell Monday at a large majority of points as the physical market felt selling pressure from the previous Friday’s 36.2-cent dive by April futures and spring-like temperatures in much of the South. Wintry conditions with lows approaching freezing remained in the Tuesday forecasts for parts of the Upper Midwest and northern New England, but otherwise those regions could expect relatively moderate weather.

Flat to about 15-cent higher numbers at several western points averted across the board softness.

Most of the market recorded losses ranging from a little less than a nickel to nearly 60 cents; only a few declines were less than a dime.

It’s unlikely that cash prices will be capable of mounting a rally Tuesday after Nymex traders reacted to adverse economic developments by sending all of the energy futures products tumbling Monday. April crude oil plummeted by more than $4.50/bbl while the natural gas screen more than doubled Friday’s plunge to 76.8 cents Monday (see related story).

A moderating trend is under way in parts of the West, but low temperatures around freezing or lower were predicted to continue from the northern Rockies to as far south as Flagstaff, AZ.

Prices were up as much as about 15 cents at the Southern California border into both SoCalGas and PG&E after SoCalGas allowed a two-day high-linepack OFO to lapse Sunday (see Transportation Notes).

A utility buyer in the South thought it was kind of worrisome even for gas traders with all the havoc taking place in financial matters recently (see related story). He noted that MF Global, a major player in energy markets, took pains to assure the public Monday that it is financially sound, but the company’s stock price took a beating anyway.

The erratic and fluctuating nature of this winter’s weather patterns is continuing into mid-March, the buyer said. His area had a significant snowfall a little more than a week earlier, but was warm and sunny Monday, he said. However, it should be turning colder again toward midweek, he added. The area can expect to keep experiencing “little cold snaps” mixed in with mild weather for a while longer, but residents can definitely tell that spring is almost here, he said.

The buyer noted that such variable conditions of a shoulder month “make it a little harder to manage gas flows.” After all the talk late last year about the abundance of storage with a mild winter supposedly in the works, his utility “looks like we’ll make it OK” on storage but expects to end the traditional withdrawal season with one of its lowest inventory levels in years.

He reported having “plenty of offers” from which to choose while doing several April-October term deals recently at index.

The number of drilling rigs actively searching for gas in the U.S. dropped by 15 during the week ending March 14, according to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bakerhughes/). Nearly all of the decline occurred onshore, as the number working in the Gulf of Mexico fell by only one rig. The latest Baker Hughes tally is up 1% from a month earlier but down 1% from the year-ago level.

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