Cash prices Monday set a pattern that few expect to be altered by much in the near term: a gradual downtrend of daily declines of about a dime or less at most points. One marketer said it was remarkable how uniform Monday’s price movement was from West to East, with virtually all markets falling nearly in lockstep close to either side of a dime.

The big surprise was a dollar-plus gain in Florida citygates. Having your own transportation on Florida Gas Transmission was very valuable Monday as most citygate offers were around $4, even though production-area prices were dropping along with the overall market, a buyer in the state said. A low-linepack notice by the pipeline remained in effect. The buyer observed that Zone 3 prices were running a moderate premium to Zone 2 — which hasn’t been the case usually — because FGT shippers currently are having to compete more for Mobile Bay supplies in Zone 3 with Transco shippers.

Little has changed from late last week in what is influencing prices, according to a Northeast distributor. A trend toward moderating weather is lowering demand, and the huge storage overhang still weighs on the minds of traders, he said, although in his own experience “not much seems to be coming out of storage right now.”

The only two really cold days the Northeast will see this week are Monday and today, the LDC buyer continued, so it’s a pretty safe bet that prices will keep going down today. Basis from February through the summer is getting “crushed,” he added.

A Calgary-based producer, reporting Monday that “up here in Alberta I don’t need my winter coat” at present, said people apparently are expecting a bigger AGA storage withdrawal figure this week. But, he added, “I always fall to the underside. I haven’t seen anything to change that. They [many traders] are expecting 160-190 [Bcf]. I’m coming in at 150.”

Despite the general softness, there was evidence in some areas of demand remaining strong. Sonat restarted a low-linepack OFO for its market area that had been lifted over the weekend, and Florida Gas Transmission kept a similar notice going into its sixth day (see Transportation Notes). Meanwhile, Texas Eastern said its 24-inch system had been overscheduled for Monday in the South Texas, East Texas and M-1 zones, and in order to accommodate firm volumes, it cut about 150,000 dekatherms Preferential/Secondary nominations exiting this area. It was accepting no intraday nominations Monday for gas leaving these zones or for additional physical supply.

Chances of high-linepack OFOs by PG&E, which were fairly frequent during the holiday period, have been greatly reduced this week, said a western trader. Shippers are pulling an estimated 400-500 MMcf/d out of PG&E storage currently, he said. “We’ve got a lot of room on the system now, because much less gas than usual is coming from the north [Malin] and south [Southern California border.”

Although most of the trading community has returned by now from holiday vacations, market activity is staying on the quiet side, reported several sources.

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