Swing prices ranged from flat to down about a nickel at most points Tuesday, as the market began to lose some of the cold weather that had kept numbers relatively firm in comparison to a plunging screen the day before. Some San Juan/Rockies/Pacific Northwest points achieved moderate gains, but CIG, Cheyenne Hub and Questar were retreating to sub-$1 levels again, in response to the region’s general supply glut combined with limited storage injection options.

Although parts of the Midwest got to below freezing overnight, a warming trend was due in the region over the next day or so, a forecasting service said. However, the service also noted that chilly conditions would remain in the Great Lakes area.

A cold front moving through the South effectively was eliminating just about all air conditioning load, except in the Florida peninsula, without replacing it with heating load to any significant extent, a Gulf Coast marketer said. He recalled discussing with a trading counterparty in Calgary about how odd it seemed to have temperatures of nearly 90 degrees F. north of the border while Houston was barely getting above the 60s. The Calgary trader got in a dig about Houston’s infamous humidity by remarking, “And you know it’s a ‘dry heat’ here.”

Quite a few people were liquidating their positions for the rest of September to concentrate on October business, one source said. That was evident from the limited volumes and quiet activity in the swing market, which she labeled as “pretty boring.”

It’s looking probable that October indexes will be down about a dollar from September’s in the West, a marketer said. He was doing Malin deals at $1.47-48 Tuesday, which was barely above his swing quotes, but 96-97 cents below the September index. Another western trader reported Kern River basis of minus 71-68 cents and said a lot of October fixed-price deals were getting done in the vicinity of $1.20 for Rockies pipes in general. A third source quoted El Paso-Permian from the low to mid $1.60s and Waha from the mid $1.60s to the low $1.70s.

The East is likely to see smaller index declines than the West because eastern basis hasn’t weakened as severely, and as of Tuesday October futures were less than 40 cents below the September settlement of $2.295.

Chicago physical basis softened slightly to either side of flat, a producer said. “Paper basis was plus 3.5 [cents] today, but index deals being done at minus 3.5 [cents discount], which gives you essentially flat physical basis,” he added.

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