Prices were mixed but mostly down a few cents Tuesday as traders weighed weather moderation in some areas against colder trends in others. A Calgary-based producer said he had “thought we would pull back further from these price levels, but it seems to be a day of consolidation in the market.”

The Northeast tended to see the largest declines ranging up to 15 cents; most losses were in single digits. Flat points were scattered here and there, while California and the Pacific Northwest registered the few small gains of up to about a nickel.

Portions of the Northeast and Midwest will continue to get snow Wednesday, but conditions are not expected to be as severe as they were last week and early this week. The West’s picture is mixed, with predicted lows in the 20s in the Rockies contrasting with considerably milder weather along the West Coast and in much of the Southwest.

It is the South where weather changes will be felt most greatly. What The Weather Channel called a “strong cold front” will move into the area Wednesday, bringing high winds and lots of precipitation. The worst conditions are due through the more northerly states of the Southeast. A couple of pipes anticipate heavier demand, with Sonat declaring an OFO for short imbalances (see Transportation Notes). Florida Gas Transmission advised customers that forecasts indicate near-freezing temperatures will be moving into the northern half of Florida by Wednesday evening, and that it may issue an Overage Alert Day notice to keep its linepack from dropping to lower levels.

Henry Hub was surprisingly tight, said a Gulf Coast producer. “Right out of the gates Tuesday morning 100,000 [MMBtu/d] was done at $6.60. There was a rush to get prices done at that cost. It’s like a feeding frenzy.” He suspects there are “some players trying to manipulate the screen with cash” deals. The producer added that his company’s estimate for Thursday’s storage report “is for a two-digit withdrawal” (that is, less than 100 Bcf; most other estimates are in the 120-130 Bcf area). “If there is a low withdrawal, this could be the straw that breaks the cash camel’s back, particularly if the chill stays away though the weekend.”

There was not a lot of activity Tuesday, said a Northeast trader who reported “very muted demand” compared to when a winter storm struck the region over the previous couple of days. Despite a moderate storm predicted for Wednesday, no new nor’easters are on the horizon at this point, he said. The trader also had a three-word description of the current market: “lackluster, benign and uninspired.”

A Northeast utility buyer was in total agreement with the trader, saying, “The weather has eased up on us a bit, and I don’t see any very bad weather returning for the next week or so.” She also noted that the market is very quiet, and some traders seem more interested in their holiday season activities than in getting excited over gas price movement.”

The Midwest is “a little bit on the warmer side now,” though still cold, said a marketer in the region. As an example, she noted that “it’s raining today [Tuesday] instead of snowing” in her city. According to forecasts she’s seen, no more winter storms are expected between now and Christmas.

Calgary-area weather was “relatively pleasant” for this time of year, according to a trader who said the daytime high was a little above freezing.

“The calendar says that winter officially commences in one week, but most locations in the eastern third of the nation feel like they’ve already experienced an entire winter season’s worth of weather,” the Weather 2000 consulting firm said in a Tuesday advisory. “From snowstorms to wind to rain to cold surges, the entire gamut of winter’s repertoire is occurring at a blistering and unseasonably early pace.” It went on to observe that snowpack across the continental U.S. “has unprecedented coverage for this early in the year in recent memory…[It] extends from the northern Plains down to Oklahoma, across to the interior Capitol District and up through New England. Additionally, there is almost 100% Canadian coverage and 75% of the Hudson Bay/James Bay covered in ice…and we’re still in the final days of autumn! This magnitude of North American square mileage snowpack has, and will, play a formidable role in chilling temperatures and shaping U.S. weather.”

Weather 2000 also said frost and freezing temperatures are penetrating the deep South at an unseasonably early clip, “indicating how strong these cold air plunges indeed are.”

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