Natural gas prices for volumes delivered Thursday fell nationally in Wednesday’s trading, with the steepest declines at Northeast points as temperatures were expected to moderate. Midwest locations were off less than a dime and major market hubs averaged about a nickel lower.

At the close of futures trading October had slipped 1.7 cents to $3.567, and November was off 1.9 cents to $3.643. October crude oil added 17 cents to $107.56/bbl.

Midwest buyers reported difficulties with weather forecasts not measuring up to expectations. “It’s been kind of a crazy deal,” said a Midwest utility buyer. Meteorologists “kept indicating that it was going to be terribly, terribly hot and it was for a few days. The problem was they kept missing it by about 10 degrees. They had in the forecast it was going to get to 97, but would only get to 90 or 91, but it was really humid.

“Over the weekend and early this week our power plant customers said they were going to use a whole lot of gas, and one day the temperatures didn’t show up. There was a wind of about 20 mph. So, they weren’t using as much and all the power supply they had bought did show up. I thought we were going to be going gangbusters five days straight, but the only day temperatures hit as forecast was Monday. I don’t know where these weather forecasters are coming from, but it was just the craziest thing,” he said.

“Much of the extra gas we put into storage, but it was maximum overruns. We’ll probably have storage full before the end of October. We are injecting the maximum allowable now.”

Those maximum injections may become a little more difficult going forward. According to reports, a major interstate pipeline serving Midwest markets is scheduled to perform maintenance beginning Oct. 1 for 25 days. Panhandle Energy’s Trunkline Gas Co. said it would work on its Centerville 300-1 natural gas pipeline on the on the Gulf Coast. Trunkline operates more than 3,000 miles of pipelines that deliver 1.5 Bcf/d of Gulf Coast supply to Midwest and East Coast markets. The system interconnects with several other major interstate lines.

Gas for delivery Thursday on Alliance fell 5 cents to $3.77, and packages into the Chicago Citygates shed 8 cents to $3.73. Gas on Northern Natural Ventura slipped 7 cents to $3.67, and at Demarcation gas changed hands at $3.66, down 9 cents. At the NGPL Midcontinent Pool, next-day packages were seen at $3.56, down 76cents.

Just as Northeast points enjoyed rocket-like advances early in the week on warm temperatures, new forecasts calling for cooler temperatures sent prices spiraling lower. AccuWeather.com predicted that Boston’s high of 96 on Wednesday would fall to 88 on Thursday and 72 by Friday. The normal high in Boston is 74. In New York City, Wednesday’s scorching 95 was anticipated to fall to 86 Thursday and 73 Friday. The seasonal high in New York is 77. Philadelphia was expected to see its Wednesday high of 95 dissipate to 86 Thursday and 81 on Friday. The normal high for Philadelphia in mid-September is 77.

Next-day peak power prices in New York and Pennsylvania tumbled. IntercontinentalExchange reported that Thursday peak power into PJM West dropped $42.01 to $80.88/MWh, and peak power into the New York Independent System Operator’s Zone G (eastern New York) market terminal fell $14.23 to $84.77/MWh.

Gas into the Algonquin Citygates Thursday fell 60 cents to $4.58, while parcels delivered to Iroquois Waddington were 20 cents lower at $4.10. On Tennessee Zone 6 200 L, Thursday gas came in at $4.28, down 48 cents. Dominion gas for Wednesday changed hands at $3.48, down 4 cents, and Tetco M-3 packages fell about 8 cents to $3.75. Gas bound for New York City on Transco Zone 6 dropped 8 cents to $3.88.

Other major market centers were soft as well. Henry Hub gas fell 2 cents to $3.60, and gas on El Paso Permian was off 7 cents at $3.54. At PG&E Citygates, next-day deliveries fell a nickel to $3.95, and at the SoCal Citygates Thursday deliveries were seen at $3.82, down 6 cents.

Weather forecasts warmed overnight. WSI Corp. in its six- to 10-day outlook showed above-normal temperatures within a big ridge from Missouri to Utah, and North Texas to North Dakota. Wednesday’s “forecast is warmer in the central U.S. [and] forecast confidence is about average despite significant model divergence late in the period. Preference was placed in the GFS [Global Forecast System]…as the ECMWF [European model] appears to be much too aggressive to drive a polar front into the Midwest on days nine and 10.”

Attention is beginning to turn to the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Information Administration storage inventory report on Thursday, which has initial estimates in the 50 Bcf area. Tim Evans of Citi Futures Perspective estimated a build of 58 Bcf, well ahead of last year’s 27 Bcf increase and below the five-year average of 62 Bcf. “We also saw some additional forecasts for Thursday’s DOE storage report that featured storage injections in the 70-75 Bcf range and bearish when compared with the five-year average, but we think most traders are simply going to wait and see what the data shows before making much of a change in their holdings,” Evans said.

Other analysts are a bit higher. Industry consultant Bentek Energy forecasts a build of 74 Bcf, but admitted difficulties handling the Labor Day weekend. A Reuters poll of 27 traders and analysts resulted in an average 66 Bcf with a range of 52 Bcf to 73 Bcf.

For analysts the big question is what the impact of the Labor Day weekend would be. “Temperatures were warmer than in the prior week as an offset to the holiday, and so we’ve penciled in a 58 Bcf build to match the one from the week ended Aug. 30, but those forecasting a larger refill are seeing a larger impact,” Evans said. His 58 Bcf increase is “neutral,” but “we see more chance of a higher, more bearish number than a lower one.”

INTL FC Stone’s Tom Saal, in his work with Market Profile, suggested that the market would test Tuesday’s value area at $3.579-3.549 before moving on and “eventually’ testing a subsequent value area at $3.404-3.392.

Atlantic hurricane activity continues. Hurricane Humberto is west of the Cape Verde Islands and had sustained winds of 85 mph at 5 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Tropical Storm Gabrielle near Bermuda was showing 50 mph winds and was projected to take a northward course.

In addition, NHC said it was following a broad area of low pressure over the Yucatan Peninsula that it expected to move slowly west. If it moves into open water, it was given a 70% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the next five days. A second area of low pressure east of the Leeward Islands was given a 10% chance of developing in the next five days.