Most of the cash market was moderately softer in post-Christmas trading Wednesday as forecasts of sub-freezing lows had become rather scarce outside the Rockies and some locations in the upper Northeast. Activity was predictably light as some traders remained out of the office on holiday vacations and Boxing Day was being observed in Canada.

A majority of declines were fairly modest in ranging from to 2-3 cents to about 15 cents, although a few Northeast citygates stretched losses to a little more than 50 cents. The flat to about 15 cents higher exceptions to overall softness were concentrated in the West, where most of the remaining coldest weather had set up shop in the Rockies and Western Canada.

Cash quotes had scant support from the previous Friday’s gain of slightly more than a nickel by January futures. Screen support for Thursday’s market will be even smaller after the January natural gas contract, which expires Thursday, added another 2.1 cents Wednesday.

Their respective movements left about a dime’s worth of convergence to achieve between Henry Hub and January futures.

Major snowfalls are due Thursday in the Cascades, Olympic and Rockies mountain ranges of the West. Otherwise heating load is relatively light for late December in much of the nation and likely often being met by scheduled storage withdrawals during the between-holidays period. Much of the South is expected to see highs climb into the 60s Thursday.

Another factor in Wednesday’s majority softness is that few transportation constraints of any significance are currently in effect.

Because of the month-to-month transition occurring during a long holiday weekend, Thursday’s cash deals will cover the Friday-Monday period. Then on Friday trading will be for Tuesday-Wednesday flows next week.

A Midwestern marketer said her company did not need to buy any spot gas with high temperatures starting to reach the low 40s. Actually any day at this time of year where the thermometer doesn’t get below freezing is relatively “nice” weather for the Midwest, she added, although she still didn’t plan to get out and work in the garden Wednesday afternoon.

The marketer said she wouldn’t get basis numbers for January until after the January futures expiration Thursday.

A Rockies trader accidentally caught at home during vacation said he didn’t know about an overnight low of zero, but he said it’s “been awfully cold” lately in the Denver area.

The National Weather Service (NWS) predicts below-normal temperatures across nearly all of the southern half of the U.S. during the Dec. 31-Jan. 4 period. More specifically, below-normal readings are expected everywhere south of a line running due eastward through southern Oregon, Idaho and Wyoming before dipping southeastward through the extreme northeast corner of Colorado, central Nebraska and northeast Oklahoma and then starting to level off again through northern Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama and central Georgia. NWS looks for above-normal temperatures in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and the Upper Plains as far west as most of Montana.

Ron Denhardt of Strategic Energy & Economic Research projects a 155 Bcf storage withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 21. Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates said he is expecting a 141 Bcf pull.

The number of drilling rigs actively searching for natural gas in the U.S. fell by a net 16 in the week ending Dec. 21, according to the Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count (https://intelligencepress.com/features/bakerhughes/). The Gulf of Mexico saw an addition of one rig, but the onshore tally dropped by 17, Baker Hughes said. The overall count is up 3% from a month earlier and 2% higher than the year-ago level.

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