Hurricane Ike now looks as if it will miss the major energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), but most of the offshore installations, shuttered when Hurricane Gustav arrived, are expected to remain shut in until the latest storm passes. Meanwhile, forecasters were recommending that the Texas Gulf Coast prepare for Ike, which moved into the GOM Tuesday, moving west toward an expected landfall Friday or Saturday.

Based on data from 65 operators’ reports, the Minerals Management Service (MMS) estimated that 64.8% of the natural gas production in the GOM remained shut in at midday Tuesday. Pre-Gustav, gas output was about 7.4 Bcf/d. MMS also estimated that 77.5% of the oil production remained shut in offshore; pre-Gustav oil production was 1.3 million b/d. MMS reported that personnel remained evacuated from a total of 167 production platforms, equivalent to 23.3% of the 717 manned platforms, and that personnel from 44 rigs still were evacuated; this is equivalent to 36.4 % of the 121 rigs currently operating in the GOM. More offshore operators were expected to complete evacuations by Wednesday.

“It appears that the core is intact enough to take advantage of some very favorable conditions in the GOM,” the National Hurricane Center (NHC) stated in its 5 p.m. EDT advisory Tuesday. Ike is expected to “move generally west-northwestward for the next day or two…” and the official forecast “is adjusted northward on days four and five…but all of the better dynamical models are even farther to the right.”

Ike’s current path “will steer it away from the majority of the offshore oil production in the Gulf, as well as the Gulf Coast region that was targeted just over a week ago by Hurricane Gustav,” said AccuWeather.com’s Randy Adkins. However, the forecaster expects Ike to “regenerate into a dangerous hurricane” before it makes landfall, predicted near Corpus Christi, TX. “By Wednesday Ike will have nothing but open water in the GOM between it and South Texas.”

Most of the forecasters’ models foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston, TX, which would occur Friday night or Saturday morning.

“Ike’s forecasted path takes it toward southern Texas, with an expected landfall occurring on Saturday,” said Lehman Brothers analyst Daniel Guertin. “On this path, Ike will pass to the south of most of the oil and natural gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, thus reducing the threat of serious damage. Nonetheless, it would still slow the recovery process from Gustav, which made landfall late last week, and we expect significant oil and natural gas shut-ins to continue through the end of the week.”

The threat of Ike directly impacting the U.S. energy-producing region Tuesday was lowered in Lehman’s analysis to 20-25%, down slightly from Monday’s forecast of 30%.

“Given the inability of the models to agree until now, this landfall is certainly not a ‘sure thing,’ and the cone of uncertainty covers the entire coast of Texas,” noted meteorologist Jeff Masters of wunderground.com. Better data is expected early Wednesday, he said. “I’m sure emergency managers are not eager to call for an evacuation of Houston, after the debacle of the evacuation for Hurricane Rita in 2005. Over 110 people died in the evacuation — far more than died in the storm. Still, there is a significant chance that an evacuation of large stretches of the Texas coast — including portions of Houston — will have to be ordered on Wednesday or Thursday.”

Masters gives Ike a 50% chance of being a “major” hurricane at landfall, with a 20% chance of it being a Category Four or Five and a 30% chance of it being a Category Three storm. However, he did not couch his prediction.

“There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years,” said Masters. The models by the Weather Research and Forecast System for Hurricane Prediction, known as the HWRF, and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, or GFDL, “paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category Four hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening),” said Masters.

Enterprise Products Partners LP said Tuesday it is preparing for Ike even though all of its onshore assets in southern Louisiana are now operational following Hurricane Gustav. Only one facility was still waiting for restoration of commercial power. Most of the partnership’s offshore natural gas pipelines have resumed operations, but the western segment of the Viosca Knoll Gathering System (VKGS) is not in service due to damage caused by the storm. Enterprise is assessing the condition of the affected portion of the 20-inch diameter pipeline. This western segment of the VKGS handles minimal volumes and should not have a material impact on deliveries of GOM natural gas to facilities and end-users onshore, Enterprise said. Enterprise’s Viosca Knoll 817 platform was not affected by Gustav. The Independence Hub at Mississippi Canyon 920 is also operational following minor repairs.

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. also said all of its operated GOM facilities were operational. “However, due to the projected path of Hurricane Ike and to ensure the safety of our workers and to protect the environment, we anticipate shutting in all of our operated production in the Gulf of Mexico and removing all personnel from our Gulf operations by Wednesday.”

Shell Oil Co., which was in the process of making some repairs to offshore infrastructure following Gustav, expects to have all of its 240 remaining offshore personnel evacuated “by Wednesday or Thursday.”

©Copyright 2008Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.