Adding insult to injury for gas producers suffering through awarm winter, reports from the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA)and California’s Department of Water Resources indicate the PacificNorthwest’s snow pack is thicker than normal, meaning hydropower isprimed for another productive year.

So far in 1999, the Department of Water Resources estimatesprecipitation levels in California are 15% above normal. TheBonneville Power Administration, said water levels in the ColumbiaBasin, which is the main water supply area for Pacific Northwesthydropower, are 18% above-normal. A California-based marketerbelieves these reports are on the low end of the spectrum.

“I’ve heard 25% above normal, but then I hear on the radio thatski resorts are shutting down [in the Northwest] because of snowfall. They have so much snow up there that I’ve got to believe theoverall precipitation level for this year will be around 60% abovenormal.” He added people are trying to keep the snow packinformation a secret so electricity prices don’t plummet. “Nobodyis really talking about that right now, but hydro affects pricesmostly during the April-May-June timeframe so I’d get ready foreven lower prices.”

If this year continues on its present course, the PacificNorthwest will experience an unprecedented fifth year of abovenormal precipitation.

For the period between 1995-1998, the Energy InformationAdministration (EIA) said conventional hydropower generationaveraged 323.8 million MWh. For the years between 1990 and 1994,the average was 264.7 million MWh, and for 1999, the EIA isexpecting 302 million MWh from hydro. However, EIA’s hydro expertTom Petersik said he thinks that number is too low and 1999actually will come closer to the recent three-year average.

“You can have very wide swings in hydropower production becauseit is so dependent on the amount of water in the snow pack. Forexample, in 1994, hydropower generated 247 million MWh ofelectricity and that was a very dry year. But since then, thegeneration has consistently been above-normal,” said Petersik. “In1999, it appears that we are on track to uphold this trend.”

Susanne Garfield, a spokesperson for the California EnergyCommission, said in 1997, 21% of California’s electricity wasgenerated from hydropower and 34.8% was generated by natural gas.”Obviously, we try to keep it as balanced as we can. Yet thebalance depends heavily on the type of winter we have. With theabundance of water being put in the system, hydropower hascontinued to rise.”

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