Hurricane Georges continued along a path yesterday that revealeda stunning possibility that the Gulf of Mexico could be paid afifth unwelcome visit by a named storm this hurricane season,making 1998 one of the most active in recent memory. And therestill are more than two entire months left for mother nature tobrew up even more trouble. Two more tropical storms are growing inintensity right behind Georges.

The Gulf already has been hit this year by tropical stormsCharley, Earl, Frances and Hermine, which in total causedsignificant amounts of production to be curtailed and a largenumber of employees to be evacuated from offshore platforms. Earlforced 10 Bcf/d of gas and 814,000 b/d of oil to be shut in and anear total evacuation of the Gulf for a couple of days at thebeginning of September, triggering brief but severe 30-cent priceincreases at multiple Gulf Coast gas market locations. Francestriggered about 3 Bcf/d of curtailments and 10-cent price jumps atGulf points. And prices rose 20 cents late last week when Hermineforced more Gulf evacuations and at least 540 MMcf/d of gasproduction shut-ins. It’s been a near weekly case of whiplash sincelate-August for Gulf producers, many of whom have had to endurethree rapid evacuations and redeployments.

Since last week, the Atlantic has given birth to four more namedstorms, Georges, Hermine, and more recently Ivan and Jeanne. Lateyesterday Ivan appeared likely to become the season’s fourthhurricane. With 10 named storms and three hurricanes (two intense,i.e. category 3-5) in the Atlantic region already this year and twomonths left in the hurricane season, there’s a good chance thenumber of named storms and hurricanes will surpass forecasts by theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and esteemedhurricane forecaster Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University.Both predicted 10 named storms (the 98-year average is 9.3 namedAtlantic storms per year), six hurricanes and two intensehurricanes this year. Gray also forecast the Gulf was 14% morelikely to be visited by an intense hurricane and 16% more likely tobe hit by a lower-level hurricane this year than the averagelikelihood over the past 98 years.

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