While Hurricane Ivan’s strength weakened slightly Tuesday to a Category 4 with 140 mph sustained winds, the projected path shifted slightly to the West, putting the storm’s track on course to hit the Gulf of Mexico’s major oil and natural gas production areas in Mobile Bay, AL.

With the slightly altered track, most of the Gulf of Mexico is likely to be affected. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in its 4 p.m. (CDT) update Tuesday that a hurricane warning has been issued along the northwestern Gulf Coast. A hurricane warning also has been issued from Grand Isle, LA, to Apalachicola, FL, including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. In addition, a hurricane watch remains in effect from Morgan City, LA to west of Grand Isle.

The storm was 370 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph. The NHC said Ivan is expected to make landfall Wednesday night/Thursday morning as a major hurricane, at least a Category 3 storm.

The changed course along with the hurricane’s sustained power has forced numerous gas and oil production companies to shut in and evacuate their offshore platforms and rigs. Labeled as one of the strongest hurricanes the Gulf has seen, Ivan could force Gulf production shut-ins of nearly 10 Bcf/d (total Gulf of Mexico production is about 12.3 Bcf/d, according to the Minerals Management Service).

As of 11:30 a.m.(CDT) Tuesday, the MMS reported that 382 offshore platforms and 60 drilling rigs had been evacuated in the Gulf of Mexico, shutting in 4.2 Bcf of natural gas and 1 million bbl/d of crude oil. The evacuations represented one half of all the manned platforms and rigs in the Gulf, the agency said.

The shut-in gas production accounted for 34% of the daily gas production in the Gulf, which is approximately 12.3 Bcf/d. The shut-in oil production was much larger, representing nearly 62% of all daily oil production in the Gulf, the MMS said. Estimates were based on reports from 51 energy companies.

ChevronTexaco reported it evacuated 1,100 of its 1,600 employees in the Gulf. The remaining 500 are located in the western Gulf, and are “not in harm’s way,” a company spokesman said. He estimated that 60-70% of ChevronTexaco’s production is shut in, and will remain shut in “until the conditions are safe enough for our employees to return to our facilities offshore.”

Kerr McGee has removed up to 120 employees and contractors from 17 offshore facilities in the Gulf, according to the company’s spokesman. He estimated that about 50,000 boe/d of oil has been shut in.

In addition to shutting in its eastern Gulf operations on Monday, Shell said Tuesday that the evacuation of personnel from its central Gulf of Mexico operations were completed by mid-day Tuesday, with production for facilities in the area to be shut-in by Wednesday morning. Facilities affected in the central Gulf include Enchilada, Auger, Bullwinkle, Brutus and Popeye. In total, Shell-operated total daily gross production for all production facilities in the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico impacted by Hurricane Ivan to date will be 444,800 b/d of oil and 1.350 Bcf/d of gas.

Shell also reported that its Motiva refineries are also prepared for Ivan. Motiva’s Norco refinery located next to the Mississippi River, about 20 miles north of New Orleans, was shut down. The closure takes the refinery’s 225,000 b/d of oil refining capacity off of the market. Motiva’s Convent facility, located 30 miles southeast of Baton Rouge, LA, has scaled production back to one-third of its 225,000 b/d capacity.

Houston-based ConocoPhillips evacuated 140 employees from three platforms in the Gulf. The majority of the workers (120) were located on the company’s Magnolia platform, which isn’t in production yet, said a company spokesman. He noted that shut-in production from the two other platforms in the Green Canyon area was “minimal,” with the daily oil output estimated at 1,000 barrels and gas output at 1 MMcf/d.

ExxonMobil has also added to its evacuations and shut-ins. A spokeswoman said that 240 employees and contractors have been evacuated from platforms, with about 35,000 b/d of oil and 240 MMcf/d of gas shut in in the central and eastern Gulf and Mobile Bay operations.

BP said its evacuation numbers were unchanged from Monday (see Daily GPI, Sept. 14) and referred all shut in inquiries to the MMS.

Spinnaker Exploration Co. announced that net daily production of 55-60 MMcf/d is currently shut-in in anticipation of Hurricane Ivan. The affected production operations are all situated in the Central Gulf of Mexico. “The duration of the shut-in period is uncertain, but could total 6-10 days, depending upon Ivan’s track and any damage ultimately sustained due to the storm,” the company reported. A total of 224 personnel working on the production and drilling operations have or are being evacuated.

Swift Energy Co. said Tuesday that it has begun its standard hurricane shut-down procedures in its Lake Washington Field in Louisiana in response to potential worsening weather conditions from approaching Hurricane Ivan. The company added that one drilling rig and one completion rig with associated work barges are being moved to protected waters while production from the field is being shut-in.

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