Softness lingered at some points, but most of the cash market was flat to as much as a quarter higher Friday. The overall rally from Thursday’s big declines was spurred by the market’s anticipation of the first significant heating load in more than a month showing up over the weekend.

The losses were fairly modest in ranging from a couple of pennies to a little more than a dime. Most were around a nickel and were concentrated at Rockies and California points.

Because of a 37.6-cent futures dive Thursday, Friday’s cash quotes had no prior-day screen support. But they will have some Monday after the March contract rebounded by 26.6 cents Friday as Nymex traders anticipated the approaching drop in temperatures.

A cooling process was due to begin in northern market areas over the weekend, but it will be early this week when the lower temperatures and accompanying snowfalls will start having the most impact on gas demand. The South was still pretty mild for the most part Friday but could also expect some chillier conditions to move in by Sunday, although temperatures were expected to remain above normal toward the western end of the region. The South’s cooldown should be relatively brief, though, as the colder weather is expected to move northward by midweek.

The Pacific Northwest was expected to endure yet another in what seems to have been near-constant winter storms in the past month or so. But the West’s truly serious cold and snowy weather would remain confined mostly to the mountain areas.

A source in the Washington, DC area said Mid-Atlantic weather has been so moderate recently that some of the capital city’s famous cherry trees have already begun sprouting blossoms “and people really have to be cautioned that it is too early to start planting their gardens.”

On the other hand, Northern Natural Gas provided a clue about why its demarc and Ventura pricing points were able to rally about a nickel. The normal system weighted temperature at this time of year is 18 degrees, the pipeline said Friday. It projected Friday’s weighted temperature as matching the norm at 18 before slipping to 14 Saturday and 17 Sunday and then hitting 22 Monday.

It won’t get as cold in Western Canada this week as it will in the eastern U.S. and Canada, a Calgary-based producer said. Local temperatures were in the low 40s Friday, which he called “downright balmy” for early February.

He cautioned that it will be hard for the market to “pop” higher very much this week because of the abundance of storage. Prices need a long stretch of cold to make a serious run-up, “and at this point I just don’t see that happening.” The producer said he thinks prices will crash towards June. People will support the cash market until then by buying for storage injections but then will start running out of space fairly quickly if inventories end the current withdrawal season at record levels, as several analysts expect.

Trading was pretty quiet Friday, the producer continued. Most British Columbia production was going east into Alberta to connections with eastern markets rather than south, he said, adding that it was the first time he’d ever seen Westcoast’s eastbound transport fully utilized while relatively little moved toward the Sumas export point into the Pacific Northwest.

A West Coast marketer agreed that Friday was a quiet day for the market, saying, “I guess everyone is waiting for the cold to get here.”

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