Twenty or 30 years from now, Hurricane Katrina may be remembered as a “warning shot” for hurricane activity to come, Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather senior forecaster, told a Houston audience Tuesday.

Speaking at the Offshore Technology Conference, Bastardi said historical patterns of hurricane activity lead him to believe that the next few years will see elevated hurricane activity in the Gulf. He predicted three or four major hurricanes in the Gulf over the next four or five years. “We’re talking the area all the way from Key West [FL] to Brownsville [TX].”

While historical data point to increased hurricane activity, Bastardi said that overpowering hurricane seasons are not necessarily required in order to have a lot of major activity in the Gulf. “The Gulf of Mexico is in its own world, especially the western and central Gulf.”

Additionally, temperature trends indicate that this year’s Gulf hurricanes could be focused more on the western Gulf.

In the past it’s been dry March to May over Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley. “This year it’s been wet there and dry in West Texas,” Bastardi said. Hence, hurricane landfalls could very well be more westward. “I do think that the central and eastern Gulf may have more of a down time relative to other years.”

But Bastardi also said that there is no such thing as downtime in the Gulf at large when it comes to hurricanes. During the 1960s a number of big hurricanes were at their peaks when they made landfall as opposed to declining in ferocity prior to landfall. “The point I want to make is that the Gulf of Mexico is sort of its own world compared to the rest of the hurricane cycle,” Bastardi said. “There’s no such thing as a relaxation in the Gulf of Mexico.”

Bastardi said he believes Hurricane Rita was a warning shot for the upper Texas Gulf Coast, which history shows has been the target of hurricane activity in the past. “We’re just going back to where we came from. There’s nothing mystical or magical about it. It happened before and it can happen again.”

Further suggesting that the western Gulf may be getting its turn this hurricane season, Bastardi said water temperatures are warmer there. “Last year when we started the hurricane season the western Gulf was cool, and the eastern and central Gulf were warmer than normal. This year the core of the warmth is farther west, so right off the bat you have potential for stronger storms in the western Gulf of Mexico.”

Additionally, Bastardi said that old-time meteorologists talk about “virgin water” that hasn’t seen a disturbance in a number of years. Water in these areas builds up heat at depths up to 100 feet. Just one or two degrees above normal on the Celsius scale can make enough energy to lead to hurricanes.

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