As a marketer had expected, the 13.3-cent drop by April futures Monday was able to take most of the cash market lower Tuesday, but predicted temperatures remained cold enough in Canada and much of the U.S. to limit declines to less than a dime in nearly all cases.

Although only OGT was able to achieve a small gain, flat quotes at several scattered points in almost every region avoided the prevalent softness. Losses ranged from 2-3 cents to about a dime.

The screen returned to an upward track Tuesday, but the meager nature of the prompt-month contract’s gain of 2.9 cents (see related story) combined with moderating weather trends in some areas after midweek made it rather uncertain whether the cash market would be able to rally as a result.

Although Northeast citygates saw some of Tuesday’s biggest (albeit still modest) dips, they may be the best candidates for rebounding Wednesday. The already hard-hit region will have a new winter storm moving in from the south late Wednesday and early Thursday. Although The Weather Channel said the worst of the storm should remain offshore, its outer fringes “could produce a few inches or more of wet snow from the Virginias to eastern New Jersey, Long Island, southern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.”

Although teens and 20s lows will remain the norm Wednesday throughout the Midwest, parts of the region have started seeing peak temperatures poke their heads above the freezing level recently, which represents a definite warming from the preceding frigid conditions and which will become more common toward the end of the week. Freezing lows will continue for a bit longer in the eastern South, but the region’s western end is anticipating more spring-like weather soon.

As usual, the Rockies and Western Canada represent about the only really cold areas of the West, and Western Canada has begun experiencing occasional above-normal temperatures recently.

Southern LNG reported that on Monday withdrawals from its Elba Island regasification facility near Savannah, GA, were a little more than half of capacity. A pull of 496,990 MMBtu was scheduled that day out of total capacity of 952,593 MMBtu, Southern LNG said, leaving 455,603 MMBtu available. The El Paso Corp. subsidiary said a major expansion of Elba Island and a related pipeline went into service Monday (see related story).

With temperatures beginning to peak near 60 in her area, a Texas-based Gulf Coast trader wistfully said it “would be nicer if I could get out [of the office] and enjoy this nicer weather.” Of course, she noted, the moderating forecasts are a mostly negative signal for gas prices. However, it’s still early March and it wouldn’t be at all surprising to see another cold front coming through pretty soon, she said, but the overall near-term outlook is chilly but not very cold.

A marketer in the Upper Midwest said her area is among those beginning to enjoy above-freezing highs for the first time in what seems like a near eternity, “and we might even see 40 [degrees] pretty soon.” Despite the slightly warmer conditions, her company still needs to buy a little spot gas each day because it went a little conservative on March baseload just in case, she said.

Noting that the EIA-914 report released Friday by the Energy Information Administration showed a 0.5 Bcf/d increase in December gas production in the Lower 48 states from the preceding month, a Rockies producer marveled that this was despite wellhead freeze-offs impacting more than just New Mexico production during December, extending even “clear down into Arkansas. If it weren’t for the ‘great’ winter this year, I shudder to think where prices would be.”

Stephen Smith of Stephen Smith Energy Associates said Tuesday he is projecting a storage withdrawal of 128 Bcf for the week ending Feb. 26, up slightly from a previous estimate of 125 Bcf. IAF Advisors analyst Kyle Cooper looks for a pull of 120 Bcf. Ron Denhardt of Strategic Energy & Economic Research said he expects a 122 Bcf draw.

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