Natural gas and crude futures values declined in unison on Wednesday as traders continued to debate whether the bullish move had finally run its course or the recent price pullback was just a pause before the next push higher. April natural gas recorded a low of $8.990 on the day before closing at $9.024, down 39 cents from Tuesday’s close. May natural gas followed suit, shedding 39.2 cents to finish the day at $9.112.

It was the same on the crude side of the equation as the April futures contract carved out a low of $103/bbl before settling at $104.48/bbl, down $4.94 from Tuesday. May crude dropped $5.96 on Wednesday to close at $102.54/bbl.

“It almost seems like the shorts are trying to take back control again. But who knows; it is difficult to tell whether people are selling into this thing or whether it is just length getting out of the market,” said a New York trader. “This slump in both natural gas and crude could give the funds an opportunity to start buying in again.”

He added that the move lower in natural gas and crude prices might be a part of a short-term slump before another push higher. “We’ve seen it before in both commodities, so we could definitely see it again. In fact, both crude and natural gas futures have examples from earlier this year.”

The trader pointed to front-month natural gas futures hitting a high of $8.480 on January 14, slumping to a low of $7.600 on February 4, then shooting to a high of $10.285 on March 14. Likewise, crude futures recorded a $100.05/bbl high on January 3, dropped to trade at $86.25/bbl on February 7, then soared to a high of $111/bbl on March 13.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw one more pop higher before things stabilize in both crude and natural gas futures,” he said.

Some analysts see technical parameters not favoring a return to a bullish environment. Market technicians see Monday’s huge decline as a big impediment for higher prices. In order to discern whether prices are ready to continue their advance, retracement analysis may prove useful. The 76.8-cent decline in the April contract Monday can be viewed as either a correction to an ongoing bull market or the start of a bearish market environment. Technicians suggest that although the bullish case may be intact, it has a lot of “retracing” to do in order to reestablish itself.

“On Tuesday natgas just barely squeaked out a close above the 0.236 retracement of the $10.294 to $9.064 decline. The ideal resistance for the bears is way up at $9.825 as the 0.618 retracement of the same decline,” said Walter Zimmerman of United Energy. According to Zimmerman, if the market is going to regain its former bullish luster, it would have to close even higher, way up at the 0.7862 retracement at $10.030. “The other problem for the bulls is the weekly candlestick. It will take a huge rally by Thursday’s close to avoid a confirmed doji star top on the weekly chart,” he said in a note to clients.

The near-term weather outlook may give the bulls the boost they need, according to the models meteorologists are currently studying. They see colder-than-normal temperatures in key energy markets in the six- to 10-day period. “Overall, the patterns here remain similar to Tuesday with cool to cold weather in the East and warmth across the West,” said Matt Rogers, director at MDA EarthSat. He added that the computer models his company follow showed “better agreement for a storm track close to the coast between the American and European operational runs as well as the ensembles.”

The models show some timing differences later in the six- to 10-day period, but Rogers said, “In general, however, there is support for some moderation of the cold, albeit briefly, before the next push of colder weather slides southward out of Canada.” On a scale of one to 10, Rogers ranked confidence in the forecast at six.

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