Agreeing on some points and differing on others, meteorologists and forecasters are scrambling to diagnose the remaining months of summer. “The last 10 days of June are showing the true nature of the summer temperature and pattern ideas where they are hooked up with each other,” said AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Joe Bastardi. “Time will tell.”

Despite the summer’s mild beginning through most of June, temperatures in July/August/September will remain warmer than normal from southern Arizona and New Mexico northeastward to the Great Lakes, according to meteorologists at AccuWeather.com.

For the next three months, the State College, PA-based company forecasts that “a ribbon of near-normal temperatures will stretch from Louisiana on northeast to New England, while the far southeastern states may average a few degrees cooler than normal.” Northern California, the central Rockies and the northern Plains should all have near-normal temperatures, while the Pacific Northwest to western Montana is expected to average a few degrees cooler than normal.

However, WSI Corp.’s seasonal forecast calls for a cool period in the major cities along the East Coast, Southeast and major California coastal cities, and warmer-than-normal temperatures in the western two-thirds of the nation, while especially warm temperatures in the Plains states can be expected in the coming three months.

“We expect below-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest in July, while [the Climate Prediction Center] CPC is forecasting above-normal temperatures in that region,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. “We also expect the July-September period to be warmer-than-normal in the Plains, while CPC is forecasting equal chances of warmer-than-normal or colder-than-normal in that region.”

Bastardi said, “The cool June presents an interesting problem. Past cool Junes, most notably 1985 and 1989 (also years of high hurricane intensity later on) were much like this one. Looking at the pattern, you could see the way things could really get hairy later in August and September. If you start running a week to 10 days of 90+ weather in the big cities and compound it with some worries about tropical cyclones,” the natural gas industry could feel a major impact.

“While I don’t think the rest of the summer in the Northeast and Great Lakes will be as hot as last year, I think it is going to be a bit above normal with normal to below-normal precipitation,” Bastardi told NGI. “While it has been so cool in Boston and New York City, one can argue that the reason was because of cold shelf water in the Northwest Atlantic.” He added that Philadelphia last June was actually cooler than this June.

He said the Great Lakes, Northeast and mid-Atlantic are likely to see the same tendency that was prevalent last summer, which is warmer later and much drier in July and August. However, he predicts a rainy late summer and fall along the coast from the Carolinas northward. “Last year it was summer nor’easters,” he said. “This year should be more tropical, and the hurricane forecast reflects that; but once north of the Mason-Dixon line, July should be dry.

“We’re predicting a degree to two degrees above normal from northern Missouri to Washington and Philadelphia,” said Bastardi. “New England is a big fight film because you still have that weak mean trof that hangs on until it can get beat up late in the summer, when water temperatures get so warm that you favor a ridge in the very place that there was a trof.”

Commenting on the possibility of cooler than normal temps in the Southeast over the next two months, Bastardi said, “I think in the areas where we have had a lot of rain, south of the Ohio River, the Southeast, the lower Mississippi Valley, it is going to be pretty tough to get any sustained periods of heat down there, so the rest of the summer may be just a little bit below normal.”

Branching out to the West Coast, Bastardi said he believes California will remain warm. “I have a tough time understanding why it would get cool out there, It hasn’t been cool out there yet. The threat is that the heat comes blasting in a few times. We are not predicting an outstandingly hot summer,” Bastardi said, noting that the East could still wind up very hot in August into September if the Northwest Atlantic continues to heat up.

“I think that we are in a situation now overall with climate over the next 10-15 years where we are in a no-man’s land as far as seeing what is going on, because the Pacific overall is in a cooling cycle while the Atlantic is in a warming cycle,” he said. “The input of the Atlantic Ocean weather and what is going on out there, is going to have an effect in the states where it will literally be responsible for slowing systems down…or allowing them to speed up.

“If we look at what is going on in Western Europe, around Rome, Madrid and England and even Bermuda, which has had another warm spring just like last year, when you see that kind of thing going on, you usually bet that the mid to latter part of the summer is going to be warm across the Northeast, Midwest and back to the Plains,” he said. “With the Atlantic growing more and more important, we better have a good handle on what the correlations of the summer seasons and the winter seasons are with that kind of water temperature profile.”

As part of its monthly breakdown, WSI’s July forecast calls for cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Southeast, along with the Pacific Northwest and California. The coolest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the Northeast. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Rockies, Plains, Great Lakes and Gulf Coast, with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the Plains.

In August, WSI predicts cooler-than-normal temperatures will be confined to the states along the East and Gulf Coasts, along with California, with the coolest temperatures, relative to normal, expected in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected elsewhere, with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the central and southern Plains and northern Rockies.

September appears to follow August’s trend, with cooler-than-normal temperatures to be confined to the states along the East and Gulf Coasts, along with California. The coolest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. Like August, warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected elsewhere, with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the northern Rockies and Plains.

With cooler-than-normal temperatures forecasted by WSI for the East Coast and California in July and August, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said moderate cooling loads in the key Eastern and California markets will help to minimize power price excursions. The group added that lower demand for natural gas will also help to keep natural gas inventories building at a higher pace through the summer which will ease gas prices and in turn moderate power prices.

“With cooler-than-normal temperatures, the potential for extended heat events is lower, which lowers the potential for unplanned outages at mid-merit and peaking generating units,” ESAI said in conjunction with WSI’s outlook release. “The cooler than normal weather forecast for these regions makes possible a combination of lower loads, lower gas prices and greater generating unit availability that will moderate power prices in these regions.”

Despite the warmer-than-normal temperatures that are expected in the Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast, lower gas demand from other regions will offset price increases from increased loads in these regions.

WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, provides seasonal outlooks that reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).

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