New York City-based Weather 2000 said that while it is far too early to predict any specific early fall warm-ups or technical Indian Summer episodes, “our old friend,” the Warm-West/Cool-East Pattern, is expected to “stay for September.”

Looking into September and October, the company said localized and regional idiosyncrasies and weather exceptions should fade after the Labor Day Weekend, engulfing much of the West with broad, subsiding ridging and warmth, and cooling of the eastern third with late summer storms, clouds and some crisper Canadian air masses.

“Our research is skeptical that this upcoming ‘cool air intrusion,’ will be nearly as intense or long-lasting for America’s heartland as models and [National Weather Service] outlooks may indicate,” Weather 2000 said in an update. “The surface drought — atmosphere feedback which has assisted so many Rockies to Mississippi locations to sizzle in August — will likely continue to throw off prevailing thoughts, which is why our predicted anomalies are much more neutral for these parts.”

Even though the company is forecasting “net-cool” for the East and “net-warm” for the West for the historically volatile September-October period, exceptions are bound to arise, it said. “All it takes is a wacky warm week out East or a wacky cool week out West, and all of a sudden you have both above normal [Heating Degree Days] and [Cooling Degree Days] for the month on your hands, so these particular statistics should be taken with a grain of salt over the next eight weeks.”

In another take on the coming temperature situation, AccuWeather, in its 30- to 90-day forecast for the September-November period, looks for it to be colder than normal for the northern Rockies and northern Plains, especially during the second half of autumn.

“Above-normal temperatures are expected from the extreme southern Rockies and Texas through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys to the Mid-Atlantic states and southern New England,” the State College, PA-based weather service said. “The Southeast also should be above normal. Near-normal temperatures may occur in the Pacific Northwest, the central Rockies, the central Plains, mid and upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and northern New England.”

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