The rumored exit of Sen. James M. Jeffords (R-VT) from the Republican Party would put the Democrats in majority control of the Senate for the first time since the early 1990s, handing them the chairmanship positions, including the reins over energy-related committees and subcommittees that have jurisdiction over key legislation and appointments.

“I think it will lead to a dramatic turnabout on energy issues” in the chamber, said Jerald V. Halvorsen, president of the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA). Foremost, the chairmanship of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, where most energy legislation is shaped, would switch from Sen. Frank Murkowski (R-AK) to Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-NM).

That move alone “will bring to a grinding halt any sweeping energy legislation” that is advocated by the Bush administration, he said. “The White House wants one big [omnibus energy] bill. That’s where Murkowski was heading. Bingaman would do it piecemeal. He’s much more methodical.” The chances of President Bush getting his energy plan through the Senate was a “long shot at best even before [the Jeffords] switch,” Halvorsen said, adding that Jeffords’ anticipated departure from the GOP all but kills it now.

Other sources, however, believe Bingaman will strive for an omnibus energy bill, but fear it “may get bogged down over price caps” for wholesale power in California. There will be “big battles over that and maybe some close calls.” Even Halvorsen agreed that electricity price caps will “receive much more attention” under a Democrat-controlled Senate than they have previously.

He also thinks this could “obviously delay” Senate confirmation of Texas regulator Pat H. Wood III and Pennsylvania regulator Nora M. Brownell to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. “I could see Sen. [Dianne] Feinstein wanting to talk to them more about price caps” for California before she votes, said Halvorsen. The Senate Energy Committee voted out the two nominations yesterday to the Senate floor, but it’s unclear whether the Senate — which is tied up with the president’s tax cut package — will be able to vote on them before Jeffords’ announcement or before it leaves for its week-long Memorial Day recess on Friday.

A change in the Senate majority leadership from Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) to Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) would affect the scheduling of items on the floor of the chamber.

Gas industry sources also are concerned that Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), who would become chairman of the Transportation Appropriations Subcommittee, would use her position to “elevate pipeline safety issues” as part of the budgetary process. Also, Jeffords — who is “about as green as they come” — would be named chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, Halvorsen noted. Under Jeffords, there “certainly would not be as much enthusiasm for coal and nuclear.”

On the issue of drilling in the Arctic Natural Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), which is advocated by Murkowski and Bush, Halvorsen said “forget it. You might as well stop talking about it.”

Jeffords is expected to announce Thursday whether he will turn Democrat or Independent. Either way, the Democrats would have majority control of the Senate. But not every one is convinced that Jeffords will leave the GOP. “I don’t think it’s a done deal yet. He may change his mind. Delaying it [his announcement] by one day tells me that he’s still uncertain,” a source told NGI.

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