Natural gas consumers in the future could be forced to pay more in winter heating bills if the trend toward overreliance on gas as their fuel of choice continues, according to a study released Wednesday by Americans for Balanced Energy Choices (ABEC). The non-profit group, based in Alexandria, VA, is primarily funded by the U.S. coal-based electricity industry.

The study, conducted by Management Information Services Inc. (MISI), examines the trade-offs associated with various uses of natural gas, which include residential heating, industrial processes, electricity generation and to some extent transportation fuel. MISI is an economic research and management consulting firm.

Three main issues result from an overdependence on gas, according to the authors: the risk of insufficient supplies and inadequate transmission to meet demand; higher consumer prices resulting from higher demand; and increased price volatility.

However, on its web site, ABEC states, “because they recognize the essential role that electricity from coal plays in protecting the environment while providing over half of the electricity used each day in the U.S., America’s coal-based electricity industry (producers, transporters, and electricity generators) have provided the primary initial funding for this worthwhile project.” The web site offers information about coal, but offers no substantial information on natural gas, nor how it stacks up against other fuels.

According to ABEC’s review of gas use in the United States, “American families who use natural gas in their homes would see winter heating bills about 20% higher in the year 2010, and as much as 30-40% higher in 2020, if there is an overreliance on natural gas for electricity generation purposes.” Cost increases would be “over and above” the gas prices already projected for those time periods.

“As consumers are still struggling to pay last winter’s high heating bills, the thought of an additional $200 to $600 in home heating costs has to be reason for concern,” said Steve Miller, ABEC president. “Natural gas is an essential element of America’s energy mix, but consumers will pay the price if we put all of our eggs in one basket and risk an overreliance on gas.”

ABEC said it advocates that all domestic energy resources be used to meet the growing U.S. demand. However, its preference is clearly toward the use of coal, which the group claims “would not have a negative effect on other energy sectors that would impact consumers and businesses alike.”

Also a concern is gas availability, ABEC said. “Even after significantly reducing its forecasts of natural gas use for electric generation twice in the past two years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration remains concerned about the adequacy of future natural gas supplies. At a time when Americans are concerned about the dangers of continued dependence on imported oil, an overreliance on natural gas for electricity generation will likely lead to increased dependence on imported natural gas.”

Miller said he believed that the study will lead to comparisons between gas and coal, but ultimately strengthen the case for a balanced energy policy.

“Natural gas is a great fuel, but opponents of new coal-based generation act as if it is a panacea…that’s just not so,” said Miller. “America has a 250-year supply of coal and the technology to allow us to use this resource to provide affordable and reliable power while still reducing emissions and improving air quality. If we make the mistake of overrelying on a particular fuel for powering new electricity generating plants, our energy security and the pocketbooks of American consumers will be put at risk.”

The complete study is available on ABEC’s web site at www.BalancedEnergy.org/gasstudy.

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