Natural gas cash prices rose up to 88 cents Monday in response to the Nymex futures rally on Friday, attractive price levels and minor heating load.

November natural gas futures saw a 22.8-cent jump Friday in what was seen largely as a short-covering rally. After putting in a high of $5.735 Friday, the prompt month closed out the week at $5.620.

On Monday, Henry Hub cash jumped about 45 cents to just over $4.10, still a mile from November futures, which ended the day up 2.3 cents to $5.643. Other Gulf Coast markets, including Texas Eastern and Florida Gas, posted nearly 60-cent increases. Even the Rockies rose sharply, with Opal and CIG gaining 60 cents to the $3.50s. El Paso non-Bondad added more than 75 cents to end in the $3.90s.

The Northeast market also was up generally between 50 and 60 cents with Transco Zone 6 New York near $4.50 and Algonquin citygate a nickel to 8 cents higher.

“This was a cash price move in response to the rally on Nymex Friday,” said a New England marketer. “There’s nothing operational to report in the Northeast pipelines. You really can’t blame the move on weather. It’s been really pretty quiet out there. There’s no real heating load to speak of at this point. But the futures market might be building a base here.”

U.S. temperatures currently stretch across wide range with highs in the 50s in parts of the Dakotas and northern Upper Midwest to the unseasonably hot 90s in much of Kansas, Missouri and west-central Illinois, according to Weather.com.

Temperatures in the Northeast are expected to be noticeably above average Tuesday for this time of year. Highs are expected to range from the 60s to the 80s from the Carolinas to Maine.

While recent temperatures have not been very supportive of prices, a cold front moving in from the Plains later in the week could change all of that at least in the short-term. Accuweather.com noted that the heat from the past few days across the central and southern Plains is likely to continue into Tuesday, but the story changes after that.

“It will be just as hot, if not hotter in these areas [Tuesday] and the heat will expand into the Midwest,” said Gerald Mohler, an AccuWeather.com meteorologist. “High temperatures will be in the 90s as far north as Iowa and southwest Illinois. Some records may again be broken. Temperatures will peak in the 80s across the Ohio Valley.”

Mohler said large temperature drops are expected in the latter half of the week. “Some changes are expected later this week across the Plains. A strong cold front will drop southeastward through the Plains ushering in much cooler air,” he said. “The cooling will reach the northern Plains Tuesday, then spread across the central Plains and into the Midwest Wednesday. By Thursday, the cooling will have reached the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as well as the Northeast.”

Mohler noted that in most cases, the temperature difference from the day ahead of the cold front to the day behind it will be 20 degrees or more.

In the West, high temperatures will be mostly in the 50s, 60s and 70s, with readings in the 80s and 90s confined to the low deserts of the Southwest. Readings may top 100 only in parts of southwestern Arizona.

Meanwhile, shippers on California pipes are facing restrictions because of mild temperatures, full storage and high linepack. Pacific Gas & Electric issued a Stage 3 operational flow order with a 5% tolerance for Tuesday’s gas day. The noncompliance charge is $5/Dth. PG&E expects pipeline inventories to exceed 5 Bcf by Wednesday. The maximum operational level allowed prior to issuing an OFO is 4.5 Bcf.

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