California’s natural gas producers stepped up drilling in recent years in response to high commodity prices; however, output has generally remained flat. And holding production at even flat levels will be a challenge, according to a California Energy Commission (CEC) natural gas analyst, given today’s lower commodity prices.

According to the CEC’s most recent statistics, about 13.5% of natural gas used annually in California is produced in state. While residential use has increased during the past 35 years from 550 Bcf to 670 Bcf annually, the average use-per-household has dropped 36% during the same period, according to the CEC.

“In California we have had pretty high drilling, but it basically has just kept annual production relatively flat,” said Jim Fore, CEC senior natural gas analyst. “There are no major basins out here to be developed. The only potential big increases would be offshore, and that is not going to be drilled.

“Basically, the best we can do in the state is hold production flat, although we are seeing some of the production out of Elk Hills declining, so it is going to be difficult probably just to hold it flat.”

The sagging economy and the prospect for climate change mitigation are the two major factors affecting in-state gas as well as some traditional sources elsewhere. “It’s weather and the economy,” said one of Fore’s colleagues at the CEC.

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