British Columbia (BC) is poised to overtake Alberta and become the top source of Canadian natural gas as of 2028, the Canada Energy Regulator (CER) said in its latest annual industry review.

Canadian Production

The liquids-rich Montney Shale deposit, which fuels all drilling in BC and extends east into Alberta, could account for three-quarters of Canadian gas production by 2050, according to the “Canada’s Energy Future 2021” report.

Supply leadership changes hands in 2028 in two scenarios presented by the CER: “current policies” that assume existing prevailing markets and regulations and “evolving” conditions foreshadowed by emerging economic and government trends.

The current policies outlook shows BC natural gas output growing to 8 Bcf/d in 2028, up 40% from 5.7 Bcf/d in 2021....