Brent crude oil prices will average $108/bbl in the second half of 2022 as low global inventory levels heighten potential volatility and as geopolitical actions increase uncertainty, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in an updated forecast Tuesday.

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The global crude benchmark, which averaged $113 in May, is expected to fall to $97 in 2023, EIA said in the June edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, what happens with oil prices moving forward will “largely depend on the degree to which existing sanctions imposed on Russia, any potential future sanctions and independent corporate actions affect Russia’s oil production” or the sale of that oil into the global market, researchers said.

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