Leticia Gonzales

Speculators with net short positions set the stage for a natural gas price rally on Wednesday as the September Nymex futures contract rolled off the board, with a drop in production solidifying the momentum. September surged as high as $2.277/MMBtu before going on to expire at $2.251, up 4.9 cents on the day. October, which takes over the prompt position on Thursday, rose 3.0 cents to $2.222.

After accumulating a record number of short positions earlier in August, speculative traders drove natural gas futures prices sharply higher for the Aug. 23-28 period. Strong cash prices and a dip in production further fueled forward markets this week, with double-digit gains seen across most of the country, according to NGI’s Forward Look.

Hotter trends held in the latest weather models, leading to another surge for natural gas futures. Already being driven by “heavily crowded short speculative trade,” the October Nymex contract surged as high as $2.31 before going on to settle Thursday at $2.296, up 7.4 cents on the day. November climbed 6.8 cents to $2.342.

A price rally driven largely by short-covering failed to hold up on Tuesday as weaker cash prices and generally stable fundamentals drove natural gas futures lower. With bidweek volatility on full display, the September Nymex gas contract settled 2.8 cents lower at $2.202/MMBtu, and October dropped 4.1 cents to $2.192.

Speculators with net short positions set the stage for a natural gas price rally on Wednesday as the September Nymex futures contract rolled off the board, with a drop in production solidifying the momentum. September surged as high as $2.277/MMBtu before going on to expire at $2.251, up 4.9 cents on the day. October, which takes over the prompt position on Thursday, rose 3.0 cents to $2.222.

Fundamentals were relatively steady Monday, but some technical influences ahead of natural gas futures expiration helped drive prices considerably higher to start the week. With solid gains in the cash market as well, the September Nymex gas contract jumped 7.8 cents to settle Monday at $2.230/MMBtu. October rose 7.7 cents to $2.233.

A price rally driven largely by short-covering failed to hold up on Tuesday as weaker cash prices and generally stable fundamentals drove natural gas futures lower. With bidweek volatility on full display, the September Nymex gas contract settled 2.8 cents lower at $2.202/MMBtu, and October dropped 4.1 cents to $2.192.

The battle over $2.15 natural gas waged on Friday, with bears already pouring their pumpkin-spiced lattes as weather models maintained a fall-like U.S. pattern through early September. Near-record production and liquefied natural gas (LNG) intake also held firm, leaving little reason for a significant move for the September Nymex futures contract, which settled Friday at $2.152/MMBtu, down seven-tenths of a cent on the day. October fell by the same amount to $2.156.

Fundamentals were relatively steady Monday, but some technical influences ahead of natural gas futures expiration helped drive prices considerably higher to start the week. With solid gains in the cash market as well, the September Nymex gas contract jumped 7.8 cents to settle Monday at $2.230/MMBtu. October rose 7.7 cents to $2.233.