Europe is expected to have enough natural gas to get through the winter, but a set of variables leaves the continent facing “unprecedented risks” that could have even deeper repercussions next year and beyond. 


Natural gas storage inventories on the continent are nearly full. Preserving those stockpiles, particularly during the depths of winter, depends on a variety of factors. Chief among them is how much Eurpeans can cut back on demand; how cold the season turns out to be; how much LNG Asia will need to meet its own needs, and how long Russia will deliver supplies to the continent.

Those factors could “cause extreme volatility and a requirement for heavy-handed government intervention to reduce demand,” UK consultancy Timera Energy said in an analysis earlier this...