Europe is expected to have enough natural gas to get through the winter, but a set of variables leaves the continent facing “unprecedented risks” that could have even deeper repercussions next year and beyond. 

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Natural gas storage inventories on the continent are nearly full. Preserving those stockpiles, particularly during the depths of winter, depends on a variety of factors. Chief among them is how much Eurpeans can cut back on demand; how cold the season turns out to be; how much LNG Asia will need to meet its own needs, and how long Russia will deliver supplies to the continent.

Those factors could “cause extreme volatility and a requirement for heavy-handed government intervention to reduce demand,” UK consultancy Timera Energy said in an analysis earlier this...