The October aftermarket was dividing along geographical lines as it began Friday. Eastern points fell off sharply from both first-of-month indexes and end-of-September levels. However, except for mild Permian/Waha softness, the West was realizing gains in both of the aforementioned cases. Sources attributed the relative western firmness largely to the region’s having a near-monopoly on any hot weather remaining in the U.S.

Virtually all of Friday’s trading was for today-only flows. However, a marketer reported intra-Alberta deals around C$1.90 for Saturday-Sunday, compared with his C$1.95-2.05 range for today.

Price strength at the PG&E citygate might have seemed surprising in light of the utility’s high-linepack OFO issued for Saturday (see Transportation Notes). But as a marketer pointed out, trading for Saturday had been completed Thursday prior to the OFO’s posting, and Friday’s deals for today-only reflected the return of industrial demand from a weekend lull. Also, it’s expected to be warmer in PG&E service territory early this week, he said.

“Besides,” the marketer continued, “I don’t think there will really be any OFO problem. PG&E still has a fair amount of storage space open, and it’s only injecting about 100 [MMcf/d] now. It could easily pick up that level to 240 [MMcf/d]. I think they just wanted to warn customers [with the OFO] to keep them in line.”

The Atlantic tropical storm front remained peaceful going into the weekend. However, Hurricane Juliette, which was near Cabo San Lucas in Baja California, Mexico and moving northward Friday, could have a small effect on the gas market this week by bringing load-dampening rains to the currently hot desert Southwest.

With another bidweek behind them, traders turned to musing about what the rest of October has in store. A few bullish types are around, but they did not seem fervent in their convictions. One thought the West had the best chance of continuing firmness, noting that the National Weather Service’s latest six-to-10-day forecast called for above normal temperatures from the Rockies westward. The eastern half of the nation is expected to continue seeing below normal thermometer readings.

But a Calgary-based producer echoed the more popular mood in saying, “There is nothing on the horizon to bring it [market] up.” He then repeated a theme that has been stated often during this year’s extended price weakening: “With storage so high, it’s all about the weather: it’s got to be sustained, and it’s got to be cold.”

A marketer tended to agree, saying, “Until winter weather shows up in November, this market will continue to have mostly downside potential.” But then he modified his position a bit by adding, “However, the bottom is near.”

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