The market could claim marginal increases in cooling load in the South as more sections of the region were forecast to start recording highs in the mid 80s or so Thursday. Nevertheless, fundamental underpinnings of this week’s rally were still difficult to detect Wednesday even as overall firmness remained prevalent.

Cash prices also managed to defy Tuesday’s 11-cent drop by June futures as they ranged from flat to a little more than a dime higher Wednesday. There appeared to be some growing recognition of the bearish weather picture, however, as nearly all of the gains were in single digits following dime-plus increases being in large majorities both Monday and Tuesday.

There was some talk of whether a Panhandle Eastern rupture Tuesday afternoon in Indiana (see related story) had anything to do with boosting futures, although the pipeline said no impact on shipper nominations was expected. Nevertheless, June natural gas futures had a strong day, as did the rest of Nymex’s energy complex, with the gas contract racking up an increase of 27.2 cents (see related story).

The basis for recent price gains remained somewhat of a mystery, although one source said there appeared to be more and more people starting to think that the worst of the global economic recession may have passed by now.

Well above-average temperatures will extend from the central South into Texas and Oklahoma Thursday, according to The Weather Channel. The increase in air conditioning load likely accounted for Gulf Coast and Midcontinent points tending to lead Wednesday’s gains.

Otherwise, although some overnight lows in the 40s may have accounted for a bit of heating demand in some parts of northern market areas, moderate springtime weather remains the norm for most regions.

Pipeline constraints are relatively nominal. Florida Gas Transmission kept an Overage Alert Day going for at least its fifth straight day Wednesday due to hot weather in its Florida market area. On the other side of the pipeline coin, Westcoast said it expected excess linepack to keep growing Wednesday.

“What are these price increases feeding off of?” a marketer in the Upper Midwest wanted to know. A lot of gas is already in storage not long after the injection season began, she noted, and projections for further large builds extend out several weeks. “We can’t figure it out,” she said, especially since her company has been buying very little gas for its customers lately. Many of those customers already have fairly large storage account balances, she said.

Midwestern weather was “still a little cooler than I like it,” but not bad, the marketer said.

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