The bull market in cash proved to have staying power Thursday, with further advances tending to outstrip those of the day before. Price movement varied widely and inconsistently from slightly higher at several Gulf Coast and Northeast points to as much as about 35 cents higher in the Rockies. A continuation of cold weather throughout the North and much of the West was credited with keeping prices firmer.

However, most sources were in agreement that a bearish Nymex reaction to the Energy Information Administration’s report of 33 Bcf injected into storage last week (exceeding or near the top end of the range of most prior estimates) is likely to have a sobering effect on the cash market Friday. The screen, which had been mildly positive early Thursday morning, dropped after the report came out and ended the day down 12.7 cents. Crude oil and heating oil futures saw almost no change.

Cash is “almost certain” to follow the screen’s lead from Thursday and start falling again Friday, a Houston-based source said, but added, “Of course, every time you’re sure of one thing, it always seems like the opposite happens.” However, a good hint of Friday softness came from late retreats in swing prices Thursday, he added. The source added that the industry has still got a lot of gas in storage with only 39 Bcf left to get to 3.2 Tcf. “That’s not a stretch at all.”

Commenting on the EIA report’s timing, a producer said, “I always try to get my deals done before storage comes out. It adds so much volatility to the market that I don’t even bother paying attention any more. For my money it just doesn’t pay to do business after it is released.”

“So now we sit at 7.5% over the five-year average,” a marketer observed of the storage report. “Prices will plunge if we don’t get some early cold weather, which is what they are predicting. It has already been a colder than normal October. If forecasters are right, that early stint that should be enough to stabilize prices for the remainder of the season. Of course the reason we have so much gas in the first place is because forecasters said last year was going to be one of the coldest this century. So we built up our supplies, we carried them though the summer, and now if we don’t get some cold down here there is going to be some really cheap gas.”

Florida Gas Transmission’s loosening of the imbalance tolerance for an Overage Alert Day notice to 25% Thursday made the notice “not terribly extreme,” a utility buyer in Florida said somewhat sardonically. The effect on citygates was light, with quotes ranging from flat in the high $4.50s to as much as about a nickel higher.

A marketer noted that the current MOPS outage due to excess liquids problems, shutting in about 115 MMcf/d, was causing a scarcity of supply in FGT’s Zone 1. “This is no time to have liquids in the line as it gets cooler,” as they could condense and cause even more serious problems, he said.

Northeast and Midwest traders may be able to look forward to a bit of relief from the cold this weekend, but severe conditions were only intensifying in the Rockies Thursday. Cheyenne Hub’s rise of about 35 cents led all gains.

As usual when the twice-a-year switches back and forth between Standard Time and Daylight Savings Time roll around, pipelines are reminding shippers to adjust scheduling as necessary. Transco was typical Thursday in noting that all the states in which it operates will change from Daylight Savings to Standard at 2 a.m. Sunday, which will make Saturday’s gas day 25 hours long.

Noting that most pipelines change to winter rates on Nov. 1, a Houston trader said he was keeping busy recently updating transportation cost formulas to make sure his company is prepared.

The Atlantic tropical storm front remains quiet. The Weather Channel reported Thursday that a tropical wave had passed Barbados and would move through the Lesser Antilles island chain over the next 24 hours. However, strong upper winds will prevent development, the forecasting service said.

Some people were already wanting to talk November deals, an East Coast utility buyer said, “but I’ve been too swamped with work” to indulge them. And although many traders are expected to wait until after the weekend to begin serious bidweek activity, a Gulf Coast marketer said, “We expect to fish around and get a little November business done Friday. We don’t want to wait.”

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