In contrast to forecasts by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Salomon Smith Barney of a colder-than-normal winter in key energy consuming regions, WSI Corp.’s end-of-October update to its seasonal forecast for November, December and January predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and in the central and southern Plains. WSI, however, said it expects cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Gulf Coast states, Northern Plains, Great Lakes states, and all areas west of the Rocky Mountains.

“The expectation of below-normal temperatures in the north-central United States during the November-January period is similar to the Oct.18th [NOAA] outlook,” said Todd Crawford, a WSI seasonal forecaster. “The most significant difference in our outlooks is that we expect warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast during the period while CPC is forecasting cooler-than-normal.”

WSI sees the following monthly trends:

WSI said its three-month seasonal forecasts have been accurate for seven straight periods, and nine out of the last 12. An accurate seasonal forecast is defined as one that is closer to what is actually observed versus a forecast that uses the 30-year average temperature, it said.

Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said the latest WSI forecast for milder temperatures is bearish for gas and power prices. ESAI also said, however, that in the WSCC the outlook for cooler-then-average conditions will translate into higher levels of heating demand. Due to recent poor hydro-generation conditions, power supplies in regions like the Pacific Northwest and northern California could be limited, in which case higher levels of weather-induced demand are likely to bring stronger power prices.

WSI is a subsidiary of Landmark Communications. More information about WSI can be found at www.wsienergycast.com.

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