While THE vote count continues and with little change dictatedby the elections in the energy leadership in the House and Senate,energy industry pundits were at leisure to explore energy policyscenarios under Democratic or Republican regimes and potentialcandidates to fill the top slots in either eventuality.

If Texas Gov. George W. Bush is elected president, it seemsclear that energy policy will get a higher priority and could evenbe a leading item for a new administration taking office inmid-January. Bush’s energy policy is heavy on incentives forconventional supply, while Vice President Al Gore’s strategy iswrapped up in environmental concerns and leans toward conservation.Implementation of these strategies will have to take into accountthe lack of a mandate in an election result that couldn’t get anycloser.

That and the fact that much of Bush’s strategy, directed atredressing the balance after “seven and a half years without anenergy policy” includes so many measures which could be viewed asself-serving for the oil industry, argues for selection of aDemocrat as energy secretary, according to Matthew Simmons, head ofSimmons & Co. International. Simmons, who aided in theformulation of the Bush energy strategy, told Daily GPI “it wouldreally pay big dividends to have someone on the other side of theaisle,” delivering the news in the energy hotspot. He pointed outthat President Clinton has turned to Republicans for leadership inthe Defense Department, where his administration is vulnerable.

Simmons declined to name names, saying he doesn’t think the Bushteam has focused yet on prospective candidates. “There probablywill be a very short window” for names to be dropped into the ring,Simmons said. A total party switch in administrations means thewhole top layer of the federal government must be turned over in avery short time period.

Vice President Al Gore, on the other hand, would have moreleisure to replace Clinton Democrats with Gore Democrats. If hechooses to replace Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, he would havea ready candidate in former FERC Chair Elizabeth Moler, who camevery close to achieving the top spot twice under the Clintonadministration, but lost out to political expediency. She also hasstrong environmental credentials, which would fit into the Gorefocus.

Moler, however, also is a pragmatist who is very knowledgeableabout the industry and conceivably could fit into the slot of aDemocrat in a Republican regime. Other names that also would fitthat bill, industry observers say, would be former Senate EnergyCommittee Chairman J. Bennett Johnston of Louisiana and PresidentDavid Boren of Oklahoma University, who formerly representedOklahoma Democrats in the U.S. Senate. Both men were popular andhighly regarded during their Washington tour.

Among the more controversial measures espoused in the Bushenergy plan are establishment of a Northeast home heating oilreserve, opening up 8% of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge,examining federal policies on drilling for natural gas on currentlyrestricted federal lands, improving the regulatory process toencourage more refining capacity, requiring regulators to develop acomprehensive policy for approving pipelines, focus funds on “cleancoal” technologies and streamline re-licensing of hydroelectricprojects and oppose breaching of dams.

Simmons said Bush’s strategy also calls for setting up an earlywarning system for the nation’s energy deliverability by making thesecretary of energy a standing member of the National SecurityCouncil. “Somebody basically needs to be wearing the energy hat toset off the fire alarm. If we had had that in place, we could haveseen today’s problems coming two years ago.” Bush also would workto make energy security a priority of U. S. foreign policy anddevelop a North American Energy Policy with Canada and Mexico.

Gore’s policy centers on creating an energy security andenvironment trust fund that will provide various incentives,including tax credits, to encourage consumers to driveenergy-efficient cars and live in energy-efficient homes and forthe development of energy-efficient and environmentally-friendlytechnologies. The fund would further the twin goals ofguaranteeing sufficient energy and reducing pollution to counterglobal warming. Both candidates favor measures to fund energyassistance for low-income groups.

The answers can’t come soon enough for Simmons, who is concernedthat Northeast stocks of home heating oil currently are 25% of whatthey were last year at this time. For the “tragedy” the nation couldface this winter “there just isn’t a silver bullet.” Simmons recentlywarned the nation was ill-prepared to enter “the perfect energycrisis” that could face the nation this winter (see Daily GPI, Oct. 25).

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