The EIA said its “Short-Term Energy Outlook” will reflect netreductions in projections for energy demand due to the agency’sadoption of the National Oceanographic and AtmosphericAdministration’s (NOAA) weather premises of a three-decade longwarming trend. The report is set to be published Sept. 7.

By adding the NOAA’s new information, the EIA said energyconsumption projections have dropped 0.3% overall. The residentialsector, which the EIA said accounts for 21% of the total energyconsumption, accounted for almost 50% of the total adjustment.

Natural gas demand was the hardest hit, with consumptionestimates falling .8% for the period from Oct. 1999 to Sept. 2000.That represents 75% of the overall adjustment. Seasonally, thewinter quarter (Jan.-March) of 2000 was affected the most by thechange, with consumption expected to fall 1%. Only the periodbetween from July-Sept. would experience an increase in consumptionas a result of the change. Because of the hotter weather, the EIAsaid cooling-related electricity demand would drive consumptionduring that period up .2%.

In past forecasts, EIA had assumed temperatures would follow theaverages seen over the period 1961-1990. In a study publishedearlier this year, NOAA observed that average temperatures in theLower-48 States have risen more than half a degree Fahrenheit sincethe mid-1960’s. NOAA now incorporates that trend in its long-rangeweather forecasts. The warming trend, according to NOAA, dating to1965, has resulted in both milder winters and warmer summers.

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