July and August will see warmer-than-normal temperatures dominating the western United States, especially the northern Rockies and northern Plains, according to forecaster WSI Corp. of Andover, MA.

“The expected transition from big heat in the East to more seasonal temperatures is currently occurring and should persist through much of July,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford. “The most intense heat will plague the western U.S. for much of the rest of the summer. By August, however, we do feel that some heat will return to the Northeast, although we do not expect intense or persistent heat all month. A transition to cooler and wetter conditions will occur in the Southeast as the most anomalous heat lifts northward and westward.”

In its Energycast Outlook for July, WSI forecast cooler-than-normal temperatures for the eastern United States and the North Central region, with warmer-than-normal temperatures expected in the rest of the country except coastal areas of the Northwest and Southwest.

Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said gas injections to storage in July may be slightly above normal due to cooler temperatures in the Eastern and California major load centers, offsetting higher demand in the Central regions. While heat impacts on power prices are likely to be moderate in the Northeast and California markets with a lower probability of heat events in those areas, high fuel prices will keep power prices inflated in most regions, ESAI said.

The WSI forecast for August calls for cooler-than-normal weather remaining in the Southeast while warmer-than-normal temperatures will be in control over the rest of the country, except coastal areas of the Northwest and Southwest. Injections to gas storage are likely to be below normal during August, providing a bullish factor in natural gas pricing, according to ESAI. Power prices in the Northeast markets will be firm with slightly warmer-than-normal temperatures and a slightly higher probability of heat events. With normal-to-cooler temperatures expected in California and Texas, power prices should remain moderate in relation to prevailing natural gas prices, ESAI said.

WSI looks for cooler-than-normal temperatures across the map in September, except in Texas and the Northeast, which will experience slightly warmer-than-normal weather. Injections to gas storage are likely to be higher than normal in September due to the lower probability of late season heat, ESAI said. Cooler temperatures in September should moderate power prices except in the Northeast, where warmer temperature expectations would be moderately bullish for power prices, according to ESAI.

WSI previously predicted an active hurricane season this year, calling for 14 named storms and eight hurricanes, including four intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater) to form between June 1 and Nov. 30 (see Daily GPI, April 23).

Earlier this year MDA EarthSat predicted that June, July and August would be 8% cooler nationally than last year and the coolest summer months since 2004 (see Daily GPI, April 16). MDA Earthsat forecasters also said the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be busier than average but quieter than last year.

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have said warmer ocean waters could mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States this year (see Daily GPI, Jan. 24). Weather forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) said the U.S. Atlantic basin will likely experience a well above-average hurricane season this year and odds are nearly even that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast (see Daily GPI, April 10). The CSU team’s forecast called for 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin, with eight of the storms predicted to become hurricanes, four of them intense or major hurricanes.

The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year norm (1971-2000). The next forecast, for August-October, is scheduled to be issued July 16.

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