Cooler-than-normal temperatures will dominate the Southeast and Pacific Coast states in May, June and July, while warmer-than-normal air will settle over much of the rest of the country, especially in the Southwest, according to forecaster WSI Corp. of Andover, MA.

“The impacts of the ongoing La Nina event, combined with the relatively high soil moisture levels, will likely result in a cool May in much of the eastern half of the U.S., followed by a warm June, especially in the Northeast,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford. “The remainder of the summer appears relatively mild in the East, with below-normal temperatures most prevalent in the Southeast. The most significant heat in July and August will emerge from the Rockies across to the Great Lakes.”

In its Energycast Outlook for May, WSI forecast cooler-than-normal temperatures across the Northwest, Northeast and Southeast (except Florida), with warmer-than-normal temperatures expected in the Southwest (except California), and Central (except Minnesota and North Dakota) regions.

Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said the warmer temperatures in early May, when there is still some lingering generator maintenance, should keep natural gas demand firm at Henry Hub. Cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Ohio River Valley and the East will extend heating degree days into May and will also provide a firm price environment for natural gas. Electrical loads in the Northeast will likely be softer than normal and provide for some power price and implied market heat-rate stability in the region, ESAI said.

The WSI forecast for June calls for cooler-than-normal temperatures to remain in place in the Northwest and move into the Central region (except Texas), while warmer-than-normal temperatures will dominate in the East (except Alabama and Mississippi) and Southwest (except California).

That forecast presents a mixed picture for natural gas demand as the higher-than-normal cooling demand from the Southeast and eastern seaboard will be offset by the lower-than-normal demand expected throughout the central region and along the West Coast, ESAI said. Power prices, implied market heat rates and congestion pricing are expected to be firm in New York and New England due to the higher-than-normal cooling demand and electrical loads. Softer-than-normal loads in California will combine with a normal Northwest hydro season to pressure the California Independent System Operator power prices and implied market heat rates, ESAI said.

WSI looks for warmer-than-normal temperatures throughout the West (except the coastal areas of California, Washington and Oregon) and Central region in July, with cooler-than-normal air moving into the East. With such a large portion of the country covered in warmer-than-normal weather, gas in storage beginning the injection season at a 360 Bcf deficit to last year and liquefied natural gas expected to only trickle in, ESAI said spot natural gas prices will likely be firm in July. But implied market heat rates and congestion power pricing in New York, New England, the Mid-Atlantic and California are likely to be softer and more stable than otherwise.

The WSI forecast follows MDA EarthSat’s prediction earlier this month of June, July and August being 8% cooler nationally than last year and the coolest summer months since 2004 (see Daily GPI, April 16). MDA Earthsat forecasters also said the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be busier than average but quieter than last year.

In January WSI forecasters said a continuation of warmer-than-normal Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies into the summer and fall and the likelihood of a favorable or neutral wind shear environment on the heels of the La Nina event will bring an active 2008 Atlantic hurricane season (see Daily GPI, Jan. 3). WSI’s forecast called for 14 named storms and seven hurricanes, including three intense hurricanes, during the coming Atlantic hurricane season.

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have said warmer ocean waters could mean fewer Atlantic hurricanes striking the United States this year (see Daily GPI, Jan. 24). In a report published in Geophysical Research Letters, the NOAA scientists said warming of global sea surface temperatures is associated with a sustained long-term increase of vertical wind shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes.

Weather forecasters at Colorado State University (CSU) said the U.S. Atlantic basin will likely experience a well above-average hurricane season this year and odds are nearly even that a major hurricane will make landfall on the Gulf Coast (see Daily GPI, April 10). The CSU team’s forecast called for 15 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30, with eight of the storms predicted to become hurricanes, four of them intense or major hurricanes.

The WSI seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year norm (1971-2000). The next forecast, for June-August, is scheduled to be issued May 20.

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