While calling for warmer than normal temperatures throughout most of the country from May through July, WSI Corp. also went out on a limb — forecasting that California will be cooler than normal over the three-month span. Joining California on the cool side will be New England, according to the company’s latest seasonal forecast released last week.

Referencing a standard 30-year norm from 1971 to 2000, WSI said May is expected to bring warmer than normal temps to the United States, excluding the eastern seaboard and California. The forecasting company said it believes June will also be warmer than normal in the interior of the country, except for the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, which are expected to be cooler than normal. The ushering in of July should also bring warmer than normal temps to the country, this time only excluding California and parts of the Southwest.

“We expect a pretty warm summer this year, especially in the southern and central Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the Southeast,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Todd Crawford. “After a cool spring, even the Northeast should warm up by late summer.”

WSI’s forecast contrasts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) May-July forecast released earlier in the month. From May through July, the extreme West Coast along with the southernmost parts of the U.S. are expected to be 33-60% warmer than normal, with the largest increase to be felt in the Southwest, according to the NOAA’s new seasonal forecast. The remainder of the country has an equal chance of coming in with above, below or normal temperatures.

Despite the warm forecasts for most areas in May and June, WSI believes that temperature impacts on natural gas will be minimal, due to the fact that gas during this period is in a low-demand shoulder period. However, the company believes that the warmer than normal July outlook for most of the eastern U.S. has a much greater potential impact.

“This forecast indicates not only higher average temperatures, but also increases the likelihood and intensity of heat events in this region,” WSI said. “The impact on power prices, particularly in New York and PJM, is potentially quite bullish. Higher loads from the power sector will also increase demand for natural gas from gas-fired generators and could likewise be bullish for natural gas prices, especially if inventory builds are impacted negatively.”

The cooler than normal forecast for power-challenged California couldn’t come at a better time. WSI’s outlook said coolness in the state should help to keep power prices moderate. In addition, the company noted that precipitation for May and June is likely to be slightly wetter than normal, brightening the hydropower outlook. However, despite generally cooler temperatures, July is forecast to be slightly drier than normal.

Looking more directly at May, NOAA forecaster A.J. Wagner said he expects above normal temperatures in the West, along with the central East from Texas north through the Great Lakes, but excluding the East Coast except for the tip of Florida. The forecaster looks for below normal temperatures in the upper Midwest. The remainder of the country has an equal chance of being above, below or normal.

“The area of above normal temperatures forecast over the lower Mississippi Valley and the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys is due primarily to [the Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) Tool]…with some support from [the Optimal Climate Normals (OCN) Tool] near the Gulf Coast and from one of the better models over the Ohio Valley,” Wagner said. He indicated that the “equal chance” rating was applied to a majority of Florida due to recent heavy rains.

“Below normal temperatures indicated over northeastern Montana…most of the Dakotas and the extreme upper Mississippi Valley are from OCN with support from some of the dynamic models,” he said.

Turning his attention to the West, Wagner said data for May points to above normal temperatures over the Southwest, Great Basin and the western slopes of the Rockies.

NOAA also took a look back at March. The organization said that virtually all parts of the contiguous United States experienced warmer than average temperatures in March 2004, noting that the global monthly average temperature was the second warmest on record for the month.

“Florida was the only state with a near-normal March temperature,” NOAA said. “The mean temperature in 17 western and central states was much above average, including New Mexico, which had its warmest March on record. An additional 30 states were warmer than average. The Southwest region as a whole had its warmest March on record.”

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