While calling for warmer than normal temperatures throughout most of the country from May through July, WSI Corp. also went out on a limb — forecasting that California will be cooler than normal over the three month span. Joining California on the cool side will be New England, according to the company’s latest seasonal forecast released Tuesday.

Referencing a standard 30-year norm from 1971 to 2000, WSI said May is expected to bring warmer than normal temps to the United States, excluding the eastern seaboard and California. The forecasting company said it believes June will also be warmer than normal in the interior of the country, except for the Pacific and Atlantic coasts, which are expected to be cooler than normal. The ushering in of July should also bring warmer than normal temps to the country, this time only excluding California and parts of the Southwest.

“We expect a pretty warm summer this year, especially in the southern and central Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the Southeast,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. “After a cool spring, even the Northeast should warm up by late summer.”

WSI’s forecast contrasts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) May-July forecast released last week (see Daily GPI, April 19). From May through July, the extreme West Coast along with the southernmost parts of the U.S. are expected to be 33-60% warmer than normal, with the largest increase to be felt in the Southwest, according to the NOAA’s new seasonal forecast. The remainder of the country has an equal chance of coming in with above, below or normal temperatures.

Despite the warm forecasts for most areas in May and June, WSI believes that temperature impacts on natural gas will be minimal, due to the fact that gas during this period is in a low-demand shoulder period. However, the company believes that the warmer than normal July outlook for most of the eastern U.S. has a much greater potential impact.

“This forecast indicates not only higher average temperatures, but also increases the likelihood and intensity of heat events in this region,” WSI said. “The impact on power prices, particularly in New York and PJM, is potentially quite bullish. Higher loads from the power sector will also increase demand for natural gas from gas-fired generators and could likewise be bullish for natural gas prices, especially if inventory builds are impacted negatively.”

The cooler than normal forecast for power-challenged California couldn’t come at a better time. WSI’s outlook said coolness in the state should help to keep power prices moderate. In addition, the company noted that precipitation for May and June is likely to be slightly wetter than normal, brightening the hydropower outlook. However, despite generally cooler temperatures, July is forecast to be slightly drier than normal.

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