A cool period in the major cities along the East Coast, Southeast and major California coastal cities, and warmer-than-normal temperatures in the western two-thirds of the nation, with especially warm temperatures in the Plains states can be expected in the coming three months, according to WSI’s seasonal forecast released Tuesday.

“We expect below-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest in July, while [the Climate Prediction Center] CPC is forecasting above-normal temperatures in that region,” said WSI seasonal forecaster Dr. Todd Crawford. “We also expect the July-September period to be warmer-than-normal in the Plains, while CPC is forecasting equal chances of warmer-than-normal or colder-than-normal in that region.”

WSI, which provides customized weather information to energy traders, provides seasonal outlooks that reference a standard 30-year normal (1971-2000).

The company’s July forecast calls for cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Southeast, along with the Pacific Northwest and California. The coolest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the Northeast. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in the Rockies, Plains, Great Lakes and Gulf Coast, with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the Plains.

In August, WSI predicts cooler-than-normal temperatures will be confined to the states along the East and Gulf Coasts, along with California, with the coolest temperatures, relative to normal, expected in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected elsewhere, with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the central and southern Plains and northern Rockies.

September appears to follow August’s trend, with cooler-than-normal temperatures to be confined to the states along the East and Gulf Coasts, along with California. The coolest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic states. Like August, warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected elsewhere, with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the northern Rockies and Plains.

With cooler-than-normal temperatures forecasted for the East Coast and California in July and August, Energy Security Analysis Inc. said moderate cooling loads in the key Eastern and California markets will help to minimize power price excursions. The group added that lower demand for natural gas will also help to keep natural gas inventories building at a higher pace through the summer which will ease gas prices and in turn moderate power prices.

“With cooler-than-normal temperatures, the potential for extended heat events is lower, which lowers the potential for unplanned outages at mid-merit and peaking generating units,” ESAI said in conjunction with WSI’s outlook release. “The cooler than normal weather forecast for these regions makes possible a combination of lower loads, lower gas prices and greater generating unit availability that will moderate power prices in these regions.”

Despite the warmer-than-normal temperatures that are expected in the Mid-continent and Gulf Coast, lower gas demand from other regions will offset price increases from increased loads in these regions.

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