While it appears that the East Coast can continue to enjoy warmer than normal temperatures through the fall and early winter, WSI Corp. said colder temperatures are set to move into the Northwest quarter of the United States.

For the period of November through January, the forecasting company expects cooler-than-normal temperatures in the western two-thirds of the country, with the exception of the Southwest. The coolest temperatures, relative to normal, will likely be found in the northern Rockies, while warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected in the eastern third of the country and the Southwest, with the largest positive temperature anomalies expected in the Southwest.

In its monthly breakdown, WSI said November should bring cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest, northern and central Rockies, and northern and central Plains, while coolest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the northern Rockies and the northern Plains. For the remainder of the country, the company predicted warmer-than-normal temperatures, with the largest temperature anomalies expected in the Southeast.

December should find cooler-than-normal temperatures in the north and west of a line from San Diego to Cleveland, while coolest temperatures, relative to normal, are again expected from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Plains. Warmer-than-normal temperatures will still be expected elsewhere, with the largest temperature anomalies again expected in the Southwest.

WSI forecasts that January will be cooler-than-normal in the Pacific Coast states, central and southern Rockies, the Plains, and Great Lakes states. Coolest temperatures, relative to normal, are expected in the central and southern Plains and warmer-than-normal conditions are expected elsewhere, with the largest temperature anomalies once again expected in the Southwest.

“We expect above-normal temperatures in the Southeast and below-normal temperatures in the Northwest in November, while [the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC)] is forecasting the opposite temperature pattern,” said Todd Crawford, WSI seasonal forecaster. “We also expect the entire November-January period to be cooler-than-normal in the Pacific Northwest and California, while CPC is forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures in those regions.”

Weighing in on what the forecast should mean for energy markets, Energy Security Analysis Inc. (ESAI) said cooler-than-normal temperatures in the Midwest (Great Lakes) and Plains states in December and January should be moderately bullish for natural gas prices due to the potential for greater demand during this period. However, the market analysis firm said there are offsetting factors. With warmer-than-normal forecast for the Northeast states, lower demand should be seen in December and January, the company said.

On the power front, ESAI said prices in the Northeast will be moderated by a warmer-than-normal weather pattern in December and January as loads could be lower than expected.

“In November, warmer than normal temperatures in much of the Midwest, the Northeast, Southeast and the Gulf states could extend the natural gas injection season and add to pre-heating season inventories,” the company said. “In the Pacific Northwest, the hydro situation has eased slightly; however colder-than-average temperatures will provide support to Mid-C and COB electricity prices from November to January.”

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