Overall physical natural gas prices averaged a nickel gain in Tuesday trading for Wednesday delivery. The overall market strength, however, was characterized by wide swings with points in the Northeast adding more than a dollar, and locations in the infrastructure-challenged Marcellus dropping more than a quarter.

On balance, more points were higher than lower. At the close of futures trading, October had shed 2.1 cents to $3.584 and November was off by 1.9 cents to $3.662. October crude oil plunged $2.13 to $107.39/bbl.

In New England, next-day gas prices soared as high temperatures as much as 20 degrees above normal prompted higher next-day power prices and in turn elevated gas prices. Wunderground.com forecast that Tuesday’s high in Boston of 84 would jump to a sweltering 95 Wednesday and then recede to 88 Thursday. The seasonal high in Boston is 74. In Hartford, CT, Tuesday’s high reading of 84 was anticipated to rise to 97 on Wednesday and then ease to 88 on Thursday. The normal early September high in Hartford is 77. Providence, RI’s high Tuesday of 79 was expected to reach 91 on Wednesday and drop to 82 on Thursday. The normal high for Providence is 76.

The National Weather Service in southeast Massachusetts said “a warm front will lift through the region tonight [Tuesday]…bringing very warm and more humid weather Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will likely bring showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and heavy rain Thursday and Thursday night…possibly lingering into Friday morning across eastern Massachusetts. High pressure returns for next weekend with dry and much cooler weather.”

Next-day power prices in Massachusetts and New York soared, providing a firm footing for triple-digit increases in next-day gas. IntercontinentalExchange reported that power for delivery Wednesday at the New England Power Pool’s Massachusetts Hub vaulted $39.23 to $87.06/MWh and in eastern New York (Zone G) next day power into the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) rose a whopping $45.35 to $99.00/MWh. NYISO Zone A (western New York) saw next-day power surge $51.91 to $86.91/MWh.

Wednesday gas prices rose accordingly. Deliveries to Algonquin Citygates pogo-sticked $1.14 to $5.18, and gas into Iroquois Waddington gained 25 cents to $4.30. On Tennessee Zone 6 200 L Wednesday gas was quoted at $4.76, up 73 cents.

Great Lakes marketers who had underbought during bidweek made up for lost time late last week. “We took advantage of Friday’s price decline to make up a lot of our volumes,” a Michigan marketer said. “We still have more to buy and today we bought on Consumers at $3.915,” he said.

The marketer admitted that upcoming winter weather was a huge uncertainty and “some reports like the Farmers Almanac say it’s going to be brutal, but the local weatherman says he’s not seeing it. Who is going to win out?”

Next-day gas prices in the region mostly slumped. Deliveries on Alliance eased a penny to $3.82, and at the Chicago Citygates Wednesday packages added a couple of pennies to $3.81. On Michcon Wednesday deliveries came in at $3.86, down 2 cents, and on Consumers gas was seen at $3.91, down 8 cents. At Dawn, Wednesday gas changed hands at $4.01, flat from Monday.

At eastern points Wednesday gas was seen rising closer to the overall rate. Deliveries on Dominion added 4 cents to $3.52, and on Tetco M-3 Wednesday parcels were seen at $3.82, up 5 cents. Gas bound for New York City on Transco Zone 6 jumped 11 cents to $3.96.

Sellers at certain Marcellus points had to endure sub-$2 pricing. Gas on Transco-Leidy fell 24 cents to $1.73, and gas at Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus fell 6 cents to $1.65.

For the rest of the week futures analysts are expecting directionless movement ahead of the release of weekly storage figures. “Although the temperature factor that spurred much of [Monday’s] strength hasn’t changed much from our perspective, the nearby futures appear to have gotten ahead of themselves in discounting a tropical storm in the distant Atlantic,” said Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch and Associates.

“TS Humberto [see related story] will remain deserving of some storm premium as this week proceeds, but any additional insertion of hurricane-related premium will require a more defined threat to the GOM [Gulf of Mexico]. Meanwhile, the lack of significant hurricane activity thus far is requiring downward revisions in usual seasonal estimates to GOM storm related production losses.

“And while the short-term temperature views still look bullish, this late stage of the cooling cycle is blunting buying interest. From here, we expect some further ‘chop’ with nearby futures likely gravitating at around the $3.60 mark ahead of Thursday’s EIA storage report that will likely determine how this market finishes the week.”

One school of thought has it that the upcoming shoulder season and plump production should keep any rally in natural gas prices in check. “Gas prices have spent nearly two weeks consolidating above $3.50 as traders consider the return of late summer heat across the central U.S. and the start of the nuclear power plant maintenance and refueling season (currently there are five nuclear power plants offline for maintenance),” said Addison Armstrong of Tradition Energy in a morning note to clients.

“But the fast-approaching start of shoulder season and the near-record production levels of gas should provide strong resistance to gas market rallies in the coming weeks. Weather forecasts are little changed from [Monday], with above-normal temperatures expected from Texas into the Midwest in the coming weeks, while normal to below-normal temperatures are expected in the Northeast and the Southeast.”

The National Hurricane Center reported that at 5 p.m. EDT Tuesday Tropical Storm Gabrielle had strengthened to 60 mph winds but was projected to head towards the Maritimes. Tropical Storm Humberto was expected to become Hurricane Humberto as it lumbers to the northwest at 8 mph south and west of the Cape Verde Islands.