The heating season has arrived and utilities are drawing substantially more natural gas from storage to get furnaces cranking. But prices remain subdued. What gives?

First and foremost: Natural gas production spiked about 4 Bcf/d this year and reached record levels above 106 Bcf/d in November. Output remains close to the all-time high in early December. In concert with benign fall weather, the robust production of recent months resulted in abundant supplies and elevated levels of gas in storage. That armed the market with more than enough gas to meet winter demand – barring a sudden shift to frigid conditions or an exceptionally long winter.

Chillier conditions arrived in December, and the Energy Information (EIA) on Thursday printed a 117 Bcf withdrawal from storage for the...