The United States didn’t see much of a winter, but you can holdonto your hats this summer because the hurricane season may blowyou away.

That’s the forecast from William Gray, a well-known atmosphericresearcher at Colorado State University. He predicts the 1999season, which starts in June, could be even busier than last year,which itself vastly exceeded long term averages in the number andduration of storms and hurricanes.

Last year Gray underestimated the toll. He predicted 10 namedstorms and there were actually 14, although the long-term averageis 9.3. This year he is raising his prediction to 14 named storms,with 65 named storm days. Last year he predicted 50 named stormdays and there actually were 80 (compared to the average 46.9). Asfor hurricane days in 1998, Gray predicted 25 (compared to theaverage 23.7) and there were 47.

This year he is predicting 40 hurricane days. Gray says the lastfour years have been the most active ever for hurricanes in theAtlantic Basin, and it’s not over yet.

Gray also expects a very active year for hurricanes makinglandfall on the Gulf Coast. Although not explicitly determined inthe report, the intense hurricane (category 3-4-5) frequency in theCaribbean area during 1999 should be close to that of Florida andthe U.S.ÿEast Coast or somewhat less than twice the long-termaverage, and about 4-5 times higher than during the below-averageperiod of 1970-1994, Gray’s report stated.

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