Unlike the summer of 2022, when blistering heat and soft supplies sent natural gas futures to the doorstep of $10/MMBtu, prices in the United States this year — and key regions abroad — were held in check by elevated American production and relatively mild spring weather conditions.

New York Mercantile Exchange prompt month futures, for example, hung in the ballpark of $2.500 in June. Futures have yet to accelerate in July and are hovering near $2.600.

Spot prices, however, are on the rise. NGI’s Weekly Spot Gas National Avg. climbed each of the past four weeks, bolstered by spikes in demand across Texas and other Southern states that have consistently endured highs in the upper 90s and 100s.

[Mexico Matters: Cross-border energy trade between the U.S. and Mexico reached $82...