Gas storage withdrawals during the week that ended Feb. 9 totaled a massive 259 Bcf, merely 1 Bcf shy of the all-time record set during the week of Jan. 17, 1997, the Energy Information (EIA) reported last week. Furthermore, the cold last week is expected to lead to yet another 200-plus Bcf withdrawal, further diminishing the surplus compared to the five-year average and putting storage levels much closer to what would be considered normal for this time of year.

Weekly storage withdrawals have exceeded 200 Bcf only in 19 weeks out of the last 13 years and topped 230 Bcf only in seven of those weeks, according to data from the EIA.

Not only did the severe cold at the beginning of the month send demand to peak levels on some local distribution systems, but the extended cold also sustained high storage withdrawals for multiple days, leading to the big weekly number.

“We didn’t get to [a record] peak, but we were taking out pretty substantial volumes over an extended seven- to 10-day period and that’s what will really show up in the [EIA’s storage report],” said Gary Bartlett, vice president of gas supply for Chicago-based Nicor Gas. “That was true for our area as well as for the East Coast and most everywhere else.”

He said Nicor’s highest sendout during the week was about 4.1 Bcf/d on Feb. 4, but the company, which serves two million customers in northern Illinois, had at least three days in which demand on its system exceeded the 4 Bcf/d level. Peak demand would be more than 4.6 Bcf/d. Nicor’s highest storage withdrawal last week was about 2 Bcf/d, compared to a potential peak for this time of year of about 2.2 Bcf/d.

Record gas demand also was reported on KeySpan’s system in New York City and on Long Island. Demand rose to 1.1 Bcf/d on KeySpan New York’s system and 751,000 Dth/d on KeySpan Long Island, excluding demand from power generation, said Melissa Mairn, manager of supply planning for KeySpan. KeySpan New England also had strong demand with sendout exceeding 1 Bcf/d, but it didn’t set a new record, she said. The company’s previous record was 1.4 Bcf/d.

Exelon’s two utility subsidiaries, Commonwealth Edison in Chicago and Philadelphia-based PECO, reported record winter peak power demand on Feb. 5 because of the extremely cold temperatures and customer growth. PECO also reported that gas sendout on its system was about the fourth highest it has ever seen.

Heating degree days (HDD) were well above normal for the week in all regions of the country except the West. For the country as a whole HDDs averaged 27% above normal, according to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA said there were 243 HDDs, four colder than the prior week, 49 colder than normal and 63 colder than the same week last year.

However, NOAA HDD data, which run from Sunday to Saturday, don’t exactly match the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) storage week (working gas levels are measured on Friday at 9 a.m. EST). Tulsa-based Frontier Weather said its HDD data does track the EIA storage week and for the week that ended Feb. 9 Frontier said there were 236 HDDs compared to 218 HDDs a week earlier when EIA reported a 224 Bcf weekly withdrawal, and 209 HDDs during the week that ended Jan. 26 when EIA reported a 186 Bcf withdrawal. For last week’s weather Frontier was expecting 216 HDDs, and this week’s forecast calls for 175 HDDs.

Looking at either of the HDD data series, NOAA’s or Frontier Weather’s, the week of Feb. 9 still came out on top. A Reuters survey of 24 storage forecasts ended with a range of 230-271 Bcf. Reuters said the average expectation was 252 Bcf. For the same week last year, working gas levels fell 92 Bcf and the five-year average of withdrawals for the week is 149 Bcf.

Jim Osten at Global Insight was expecting a 255 Bcf withdrawal. Consultant Ron Denhardt of Winchester, MA-based Strategic Energy & Economic Research was predicting a 264 Bcf draw. And Denver-based consulting firm Bentek Energy said it was expecting a 261 Bcf withdrawal based on a model that extrapolates total U.S. withdrawals based on gas flows from many of the country’s storage fields to interstate pipelines.

Bentek said its survey samples in both the Producing and East regions showed record high withdrawals. “In the East, nine out of the 10 largest storage facilities experienced the maximum level of withdrawals” since Bentek has been collecting data for its storage outlook. Withdrawals at seven out of 17 fields in the Producing region were maxed out.

Bentek reported that Dominion Transmission withdrew 25 Bcf, Columbia removed 23 Bcf, ANR withdrew 17 Bcf and NGPL took out 15.6 Bcf. The total East number in Bentek’s sample was 14% higher than the previous week. Bentek predicted that the East withdrew a total of 162 Bcf, with the Producing and West regions drawing 85 Bcf and 14 Bcf, respectively.

The EIA reported that the East withdrew 179 Bcf, while the Producing region took out 68 Bcf and the West withdrew 12 Bcf. The net weekly withdrawal leaves working gas levels 193 Bcf lower than the same time last year and 268 Bcf, or 14.7%, above the five-year average.

Tim Evans, futures analyst with Citigroup, said this week’s report for the week that ended Feb. 16 should show a withdrawal of about 210-220 Bcf. A 210 Bcf withdrawal for the week ending Feb. 16 would put working gas levels only 193 Bcf above the five-year average and 285 Bcf below levels at the same time last year.

Nicor’s Bartlett said so far this month the utility has taken about 50% more gas out of storage than normal. “We were definitely behind before we got this colder-than-normal weather and that kind of caught us back up. We are pretty much planning to be on schedule [with normal storage levels on April 1],” he said. “From a storage standpoint, we are in very good shape.”

He noted that HDDs are still running much above normal in Chicago, about 57 last Wednesday compared to a normal of about 40 HDDs. However, a slight warm-up is expected by the middle of this week. That should put Nicor is a good position entering the last month of the heating season.

Analysts at Raymond James & Associates are predicting that working gas will end the heating season at about 1,400 Bcf, compared to 1,696 Bcf last year on March 30. Energy consultant Stephen Smith was projecting three weeks ago there would be 1,715 Bcf in storage at the end of March. Last Monday, he revised his forecast to a season-ending level of 1,493 Bcf.

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