Natural gas futures probed modestly higher in early trading Monday following colder adjustments to forecasts over the weekend, though analysts continued to see signs of underlying looseness in the supply/demand balance.

NGI Morning Natural Gas Price & Markets Coverage

The May Nymex contract was up 9.3 cents to $2.104/MMBtu at around 8:45 a.m. ET.

Weather models trended somewhat cooler over the weekend, with the colder adjustment focused around a weather system expected to track across the northern United States from April 17-20, according to NatGasWeather.

“However, the weekend data held exceptionally light demand the next seven days while also showing a light demand pattern returning April 21-24,” NatGasWeather said.

Based on forecasts and recent balances, the Lower 48 storage surplus to the five-year average is...