While the development of Tropical Storm Katrina scared natural gas futures on Wednesday above $10 on concerns over Gulf of Mexico production, one weather forecasting company warned that the industry might be getting a little ahead of itself.

Weather 2000 said Wednesday that despite the recent quiet spell over the past few weeks, the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season continues to maintain an all-time record pace of Tropical Storm formation. The resumed flurry of activity with Tropical Storm Jose on Monday and now Katrina, has kept the pace on record track. “This is the earliest date we’ve ever reached the 11th tropical storm, and the 12th tropical storm, Lee, will likely be classified this week in the Eastern Atlantic,” Weather 2000 said on Wednesday morning.

Despite the ramped up activity, the forecasting firm warned that not every storm hits the bullseye. “With the numerous storms this year, some forecasters are getting a little over-eager with high-consequence forecast tracks (i.e. Louisiana strike) before the storm even matures,” Weather 2000 said. “While we always advocate keeping doors open (as Hurricanes by definition are capricious), we also want to preach patience with regards to Tropical Storm Katrina.

Weather 2000 said Katrina — which is slowly moving off to the Northwest toward Southern Florida — should be broken down into two chapters, Florida and Post-Florida.

The Florida chapter focuses on the storm’s initial impact to the state. “While it is possible that Katrina will remain a Tropical Storm up until Florida, water temperatures throughout the Bahamas and off Eastern Florida are approaching 88°F and could easily trigger a rapid intensification cycle, helping her reach Hurricane status by landfall,” Weather 2000 said. “The intensity, forward speed/angle and latitude at which she strikes Florida later this week, are critical variables for her future that still need to be refined.

The post-Florida chapter deals with where Katrina goes after leaving the peninsula. “While the ‘nightmare’ path for many would be if Katrina followed in the footsteps of Andrew (1992) heading toward Louisiana, this scenario makes a lot of assumptions that can not be scientifically satisfied at this time,” the forecasting firm said. “Just as plausible would be a path similar to Jeanne (2004) which sliced across Florida, emerged into the extreme Northeast Gulf, before imbedding herself in the Panhandle, remaining a Florida-only story.”

Due to current weather patterns and water temperatures, Weather 2000 warned that any prospects of Katrina emerging into the Gulf “should be taken seriously with regards to intensity. We just urge a little patience (24 hours +) before any specific Gulf Coast targets are jumped on.”

©Copyright 2005Intelligence Press Inc. All rights reserved. The preceding news reportmay not be republished or redistributed, in whole or in part, in anyform, without prior written consent of Intelligence Press, Inc.