Robust natural gas production, plump supplies in storage and benign winter weather so far could send Henry Hub futures below $2.00/MMBtu, putting prices late this year in the realm of the pandemic-induced slump of 2020.

“The narrative keeps getting worse for gas bulls,” analysts at The Schork Report said, noting forecasts that call for seasonally mild weather through December. “Without substantial, prolonged space heating demand this season, a path to sub-$2.00/MMBtu has been cleared” for front-month futures.

The January natural gas futures contract this week climbed off recent lows and hovered close to $2.500/MMBtu intraday Friday, but it was still down more than 10% from the start of this month. Futures were trading at a level below half the value of a year...