A few Gulf Coast points joined the Florida citygate and most of the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic citygates in sustaining Tuesday’s overall price advance through Wednesday, but most of the market dropped in response to some warming trends either already under way or in the forecast, and to relaxation or elimination of some cold weather-related pipeline restrictions.

The previous day’s 4.4-cent decline by March futures also figured in the cash softness Wednesday, and heavy use of storage was believed to be still displacing spot gas purchases.

The majority losses ranged from 2-3 cents to a little more than 35 cents. The rest of the market was flat to up nearly 60 cents.

Tennessee indicated that Northeast price strength is likely to continue through at least Thursday, as it plans to implement a Critical Day 1 OFO in all system zones Friday (see Transportation Notes). Northeast temperatures will continue to bottom out in the teens and 20s Thursday.

Although Transco did not have an OFO in place, it had some of Wednesday’s strongest pricing in recording gains at Stations 65 and 85 in the Gulf Coast, Zone 5 in the Mid-Atlantic and both of the Zone 6 pools in the Northeast.

Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) followed up Tuesday’s warning of a potential Overage Alert Day by actually issuing one Wednesday, which helped boost prices at the Florida citygates and FGT Zones 2 and 3 in the production area by about half a dollar, a nickel and a quarter, respectively. However, quotes into Southern Natural Gas fell about a nickel after the pipeline said it was about to lift an OFO (see Transportation Notes).

A trend of falling temperatures Wednesday in the South was proving to be short-lived, as readings were forecast to be rebounding Thursday. Lows were still expected to be below freezing in much of the region’s eastern half, but in the upper 30s or higher from roughly the Mississippi River westward.

Warming trends also will continue in the Midcontinent and Midwest. The Midcontinent will be relatively very moderate, with Tulsa predicted to see a high around 63 Thursday. Conditions will still be frigid in the Midwest, but to traders the important thing was that the conditions will be warmer than before. Chicago is expected to go from a high in the mid teens Wednesday to one about 20 degrees higher Thursday.

Heating load was very light in most of the West, as Denver’s forecast for Thursday called for a relatively balmy high around 70 degrees, although the low is predicted to be in the freezing area. Although the California market will see temperatures going lower, the weather will still be moderate as most parts of the state will not get below about 50 degrees. And Phoenix in the desert Southwest will peak around 80.

A Midcontinent producer had noted Tuesday that the normal 80 cents or so NGPL-TexOk premium over the pipeline’s Midcontinent zoner had been cut in half for reasons he couldn’t fathom (see Daily GPI, Feb. 4). The premium was sliced in half again Wednesday as TexOk recorded the day’s biggest decline to trade only about 20 cents over NGPL-Midcontinent.

A Midwest marketer reported local below-zero wind chills Wednesday but said her region was looking forward to being considerably warmer this weekend. Her company had one client who needed more supply to resolve an imbalance with a utility, she said, “but we’ve been putting off buying spot gas as much as possible” so far this week, figuring that with milder temperatures on the way, the company should be able to get cheaper prices for the client by waiting another day or so.

The National Weather Service’s six- to 10-day forecast for the Feb. 9-13 workweek calls for above-normal temperatures everywhere east of a line running southward along the western edges of Minnesota, Iowa and Missouri before curving to the southwest through the southeastern corner of Kansas to eastern Oklahoma and central Texas. The agency predicts below-normal readings throughout the West as far east as western Montana and the eastern edges of the Rockies and New Mexico.

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