Natural gas futures and cash prices surged early in the new year – bolstered by a barrage of winter freezes and production hits – then flopped amid forecasts for a return to benign weather and uncertainty about the trendline for supply.

Several analysts expect the rollercoaster ride to endure – at least for the near term.

Weather, of course, is the one constant catalyst, particularly in the heart of the heating season. Widespread frigid temperatures in the middle of January bolstered heating demand across the Lower 48 and caused wellhead freeze-offs that cut production by more than 10%.

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