Only a few months after President Andrés Manuel López Obrador vowed to end his nation’s dependence on natural gas imports from the United States, Mexico’s need for Lower 48 gas is surging.

Pemex gas production goals

April is usually a month of lower energy demand in Mexico, when natural gas infrastructure undergoes maintenance and gas imports drop, but this month has been different. Natural gas imports from the United States are currently surprising the market and analysts are now revising their summer forecasts to the upside.

On April 14, a single day U.S.-to-Mexico record was broken when exports reached 7.1 Bcf/d. U.S. exports to Mexico averaged 7.0 Bcf/d last week. Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) analysts said exports during the period outpaced their model by around 1.5 Bcf/d.

“It’s a...