Natural gas spot prices at Henry Hub are set to average $4.70/MMBtu in February, according to updated projections from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), though the agency cautioned that its forecast is subject to weather uncertainty.

EIA forecast

Spot prices at the national benchmark averaged $4.38 in January, an increase above average prices of $3.76 in December, EIA said in its latest monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), published last week. 

Alluding to the important role weather-driven demand will play in determining whether a $4.70 February Henry Hub average materializes, researchers said they used forecasting from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration as of late January in the latest projections.

“The winter weather forecasts are highly variable and...