With Tropical Storm Bonnie becoming a potential threat to the Gulf of Mexico, BP plc last Friday said it was suspending relief well activities targeting its blownout Macondo well. “Duration of the suspension of relief well activities will be dependent on the weather,” BP said.

A cap on the well was expected to remain in place. The well has been undergoing integrity testing since placement of the cap a week ago. BP said it would continue to monitor the well as long as weather permitted.

During a press briefing Friday morning, National Incident Commander Admiral Thad Allen of the U.S. Coast Guard said responders were assuming that very early Saturday storm-force winds could be experienced at the well site.

“As of Friday morning, waves in the area were between two and four feet,” AccuWeather.com said. “Bonnie’s impact in the Gulf could create waves between five and eight feet on Saturday.”

Tropical Depression 3 was upgraded Thursday night to Tropical Storm Bonnie, becoming the Atlantic hurricane season’s second named storm of 2010. But late Friday afternoon the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Bonnie had weakened into a tropical depression again after passing through the southern tip of Florida. NHC projected the system as entering the southeast Louisiana-southern Mississippi area around late Saturday afternoon.

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement said 13 companies had reported 667 MMcf/d of shut-in gas output, or 10.42% of normal GOM production, to it by 11:30 a.m CDT. Eleven platforms and two mobile drilling rigs had been evacuated, the agency said.

Allen said that some oil from the spill could be driven inland to marsh areas. This happened when Hurricane Alex passed through the area earlier, he noted. However, AccuWeather’s Alex Sosnowski, expert senior meteorologist, said that because Bonnie is a fast-moving storm it would have less time to drive oil inland from Gulf waters.

Allen earlier last week said the government’s team had questions about BP’s monitoring of the well following installation of the cap. Shortly after the cap’s installation, a seep was discovered about two miles from the busted well, but it was later determined by the government and BP not to be a threat. The government’s questions were subsequently answered by BP and “ongoing monitoring and full analysis of both the seepage and methane will continue in coordination with the science team,” Allen said last Monday.

“I authorized BP to continue the integrity test for another 24 hours, and I restated our firm position that this test will only continue if they continue to meet their obligations to rigorously monitor for any signs that this test could worsen the overall situation. At any moment, we have the ability to return to the safe containment of the oil on the surface until the time the relief well is completed and the well is permanently killed.”

A BP representative told Reuters that the seep was about two miles from the well site and was naturally occurring and not related to the blowout.

“The issue being studied here is whether the Macondo well has a problem with its subsurface casing,” explained analysts at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. Securities Inc. in a note last week. “The shut-in well allows pressure to build…which could be pushing oil/hydrocarbons out in the reservoir rock…where it then is finding its way to the surface of the sea floor (and into the ocean)…IF there is a loss of wellbore integrity, opening the cap back up relieves the pressure and the spilling oil would be directed up through the containment system to the surface, rather than being pushed out into the reservoir and into the ocean.”

In other BP spill-related news, UK bookie Paddy Power last week was paying out on the wager that BP CEO Tony Hayward would step down before the end of the year.

More than 500 bets were placed with Paddy Power (www.paddypower.com) on Hayward not to be CEO of BP on Dec. 31. This forced his odds down from two-to-one to one-to-five. Hayward’s fortunes — at least in the eyes of those willing to wager — were beginning to turn last month, according to odds offered by the betting site.

“Punters seem in absolutely no doubt that Tony Hayward’s days as boss of BP are numbered,” Paddy Power said Monday. “We’ve taken over 100 bets on Hayward to go in the past five days alone and not one single bet on him to stay. It’s game over as far as we’re concerned and we’ll be paying out from today.”

Paddy Power continues to take bets on the next CEO of BP with American Rob Dudley replacing Englishman Iain Conn as favorite. Dudley, who was assigned by BP to lead the Gulf Coast Restoration Organization, has seen his odds slashed from 10-to-one to seven-to-four favorite following significant betting supporting the 55 year-old executive, Paddy Power said.

Tied with Conn at four-to-one odds was former BP CEO John Browne.

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